College football picks today: Week 16 Saturday best bets include South Dakota vs. Montana play [12/13/2025]

South Dakota ML (+275)

• Edge: 10.3%
• Probability: 37%
• Matchup: South Dakota vs. Montana (3:30PM ET, Saturday)

Our model has identified value on South Dakota to defeat Montana at +275 odds. A 37% probability produces an edge of 10.3%, making this the strongest play for today's college football slate.

Boise State ML (+310)

• Edge: 7.6%
• Probability: 32%
• Matchup: LA Bowl (8:00PM ET, Saturday)

Boise State ML carries a 7.6% edge and a probability of 32% at +310 odds, according to our model.

Boise State +10 (-110)

• Edge: 7.3%
• Probability: 59.7%
• Matchup: LA Bowl (8:00PM ET, Saturday)

Boise State +10 vs. Washington at -110 odds shows a 7.3% edge, supported by a 59.7% probability in simulations.

South Dakota +7.5 (-105)

• Edge: 6.7%
• Probability: 57.9%
• Matchup: South Dakota vs. Montana (3:30PM ET, Saturday)

A 6.7% edge and 57.9% probability make South Dakota +7.5 vs. Montana at a value play in the South Dakota vs. Montana matchup, per our model.

Illinois State ML (+122)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 51.6%
• Matchup: Illinois State vs. UC Davis (5:00PM ET, Saturday)

Illinois State ML at +122 odds presents a 6.5% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 51.6%.

Illinois State +2.5 (+100)

• Edge: 4.3%
• Probability: 54.3%
• Matchup: Illinois State vs. UC Davis (5:00PM ET, Saturday)

Our model finds value on Illinois State +2.5 at +100 odds, supported by an edge of 4.3%.

Illinois State vs. UC Davis over 58.5 points (-105)

• Edge: 3.2%
• Probability: 54.4%
• Matchup: Illinois State vs. UC Davis (5:00PM ET, Saturday) Our model has uncovered value on Illinois State vs. UC Davis over 58.5 points at -105 odds. A 54.4% probability produces a 3.2% edge, making this a strong play for today's college football action.

Boise State vs. Washington over 52.5 points (-112)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 55.9%
• Matchup: LA Bowl (8:00PM ET, Saturday)

A 3.1% edge on a 55.9% probability makes over 52.5 points at -112 odds a solid value play in today's Boise State vs. Washington matchup.

South Dakota vs. Montana under 59.5 points (-110)

• Edge: 2.2%
• Probability: 54.6%
• Matchup: South Dakota vs. Montana (3:30PM ET, Saturday)

Our model projects value on under 59.5 points at -110 odds. A 54.6% probability produces a 2.2% edge, making the under the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.

NCAAF best bets summary: Saturday, 12/13/2025

As of 12:02PM ET, here are our top college football bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
South Dakota vs. Montana	South Dakota ML	+275 @ DraftKings	10.3%	37%
Boise State vs. Washington	Boise State ML	+310 @ DraftKings	7.6%	32%
Boise State vs. Washington	Boise State +10	-110 @ BetMGM	7.3%	59.7%
South Dakota vs. Montana	South Dakota +7.5	-105 @ BetMGM	6.7%	57.9%
Illinois State vs. UC Davis	Illinois State ML	+122 @ FanDuel	6.5%	51.6%
Illinois State vs. UC Davis	Illinois State +2.5	+100 @ FanDuel	4.3%	54.3%
Illinois State vs. UC Davis	Over 58.5 Points	-105 @ DraftKings	3.2%	54.4%
Boise State vs. Washington	Over 52.5 Points	-112 @ DraftKings	3.1%	55.9%
South Dakota vs. Montana	Under 59.5 Points	-110 @ BetMGM	2.2%	54.6%

List of upcoming college football games to bet on now

• Army vs. Navy (3:00PM ET, Saturday)
• South Dakota vs. Montana (3:30PM ET, Saturday)
• Illinois State vs. UC Davis (5:00PM ET, Saturday)
• Boise State vs. Washington (8:00PM ET, Saturday)

More college football betting

For further insights into this week's NCAAF action, check out the latest from the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast:

Conclusion

Our college football best bets are locked and loaded for December 13, 2025, featuring plays such as South Dakota ML and Boise State ML. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate college football insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

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