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Chelsea vs. Manchester City prediction, odds, Premier League picks [4/12/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Chelsea vs Manchester City predictions for Premier League Sunday.
Chelsea will square off with Manchester City in Premier League action at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, starting at 11:30 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced Premier League model projects Manchester City as the most likely winner of the Chelsea vs. Manchester City game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City prediction: Who will win?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Premier League match between Chelsea and Manchester City, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model indicates a 28.8% chance of Chelsea winning, a 49.0% chance for Manchester City, and a 22.2% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 65% chance of going over, according to our model.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City odds
We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Chelsea | Manchester City | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +260 | +100 | +290 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -200 | +162 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chelsea | +260 |
| Total Goals | Over 2.5 | -200 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Chelsea to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| CHE 1-1 MCI | 9.6% |
| CHE 1-2 MCI | 9.2% |
| CHE 2-1 MCI | 6.9% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 65.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 34.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.
These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score can differ from our predicted winner.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Premier League game between Chelsea and Manchester City at Stamford Bridge is scheduled to commence in the USA at 11:30 AM ET.
- Who: Chelsea vs. Manchester City
- Date: Sunday, April 12, 2026
- Time: 11:30 AM ET/8:30AM PT
- Venue: Stamford Bridge
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Chelsea has a 28.8% win probability on Sunday, Manchester City has a 49.0% win probability, and there is a 22.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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