Hurricanes vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [3/14/2026]

NHL action continues on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET as the Carolina Hurricanes lock horns with the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Lightning a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Hurricanes.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's Hurricanes vs. Lightning matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Canes vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Hurricanes and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 54% chance of defeating the Hurricanes.

According to our model, the Hurricanes (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Hurricanes vs. Lightning odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Hurricanes	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-225)	-1.5 (+198)
Moneyline	+110	-128
Total	o6.5 (+108)	u6.5 (-120)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Hurricanes vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Lightning -1.5	+198
Moneyline	Hurricanes	+110
Total	Under 6.5	-120

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning -1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Hurricanes vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Hurricanes vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Hurricanes vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Point a 37.5% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 6.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Seth Jarvis	29.1%
Nikolaj Ehlers	28.9%
Sebastian Aho	27.6%
Andrei Svechnikov	26.5%
Taylor Hall	21.5%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Brayden Point	37.5%
Jake Guentzel	35.3%
Nikita Kucherov	34.9%
Brandon Hagel	30.5%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	21.2%

First goal scorer predictions

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	First Goal Probability
Seth Jarvis	5.6%
Nikolaj Ehlers	5.6%
Andrei Svechnikov	5.1%
Sebastian Aho	4.4%
Taylor Hall	3.8%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Nikita Kucherov	7.2%
Jake Guentzel	7.0%
Brayden Point	6.8%
Brandon Hagel	6.2%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	4.2%

Canes vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Lightning and Hurricanes at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Hurricanes on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Hurricanes vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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