Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Korda prediction, odds, picks for ATP Miami Open 2026

Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Korda will lock horns in the round of 32 of the ATP Miami Open event on Sunday.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. Korda match.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Alcaraz vs. Korda prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's Alcaraz-Korda men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Alcaraz an 87% chance of defeating Korda at the ATP Miami Open tournament.

Additionally, Alcaraz has an 81% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 60% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Korda odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Alcaraz vs. Korda picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Alcaraz vs. Korda updates and essential details

The ATP Miami Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Korda is scheduled to begin on Sunday at 2:50 PM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Korda
• Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
• Approx. Time: 2:50 PM ET/11:50AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Miami, USA Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with an 87% win probability, will likely beat Sebastian Korda at the ATP Miami Open tournament.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Korda insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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