Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic prediction, odds, picks for 2026 Australian Open

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will meet in the final of the 2026 Australian Open on Sunday.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. Djokovic match.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Alcaraz vs. Djokovic prediction: Who will win the final?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Alcaraz-Djokovic men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Alcaraz a 74% chance of beating Djokovic in the 2026 Australian Open.

Additionally, Alcaraz has a 69% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 38.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting**, according to our model.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Alcaraz vs. Djokovic picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is over 38.5 total games.

Alcaraz vs. Djokovic updates and essential details

The 2026 Australian Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic is scheduled to begin on Sunday at 3:30 AM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic
• Date: Sunday, February 1, 2026
• Approx. Time: 3:30 AM ET/12:30AM PT
• Tournament: 2026 Australian Open, Men's Singles
• Round: Final

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat Novak Djokovic at the 2026 Australian Open.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Djokovic insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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