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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet prediction, odds, picks for 2026 Australian Open
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Alcaraz vs Moutet predictions for 2026 Australian Open.
Carlos Alcaraz will take on Corentin Moutet in the third round of the 2026 Australian Open on Thursday.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. Moutet match.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Alcaraz vs. Moutet prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 16?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Alcaraz-Moutet men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives Alcaraz a 98% chance of defeating Moutet in the 2026 Australian Open.
Additionally, Alcaraz has a 93% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Moutet (+10.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 28.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting**, according to our model.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Alcaraz | Moutet |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -3846 | +2200 |
| First Set | -909 | +550 |
| Game Spread | -10.5 (+105) | +10.5 (-170) |
| Total Games | o28.5 (-115) | u28.5 (-125) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Alcaraz vs. Moutet picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alcaraz | -3846 |
| First Set | Moutet | -125 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 28.5 total games.
Alcaraz vs. Moutet updates and essential details
The 2026 Australian Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Corentin Moutet is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Corentin Moutet
- Date: Thursday, January 22, 2026
- Approx. Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Tournament: 2026 Australian Open, Men's Singles
- Round: Third round
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 98% win probability, will likely beat Corentin Moutet at the 2026 Australian Open.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Moutet insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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