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Burnley vs. Manchester City prediction, odds, Premier League picks [4/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Burnley vs Manchester City predictions for Premier League Wednesday.
Premier League action continues on Wednesday at 3:00 PM ET as the favored Manchester City takes on Burnley at Turf Moor.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced Premier League model predicts Manchester City as the most likely winner of the Burnley vs. Manchester City game.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Burnley vs. Manchester City prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's Premier League match between Burnley and Manchester City, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 7.7% chance of Burnley winning, a 78.7% chance for Manchester City, and a 13.6% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 66% chance of going over, according to our model.
Burnley vs. Manchester City odds
We have researched the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
Moneyline
| Burnley | Manchester City | Draw |
|---|---|---|
| +1900 | -600 | +800 |
Total Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| -275 | +220 |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Burnley vs. Manchester City picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Burnley | +1900 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | +220 |
According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Burnley to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Burnley vs. Manchester City: Correct score and BTTS predictions
The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 Manchester City win being the most probable:
| Final Score | Probability |
|---|---|
| BUR 0-2 MCI | 11.8% |
| BUR 0-3 MCI | 10.6% |
| BUR 0-1 MCI | 8.8% |
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 48.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 51.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Burnley vs. Manchester City game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's Premier League matchup between Burnley and Manchester City at Turf Moor is scheduled to commence in the USA at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: Burnley vs. Manchester City
- Date: Wednesday, April 22, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Turf Moor
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Burnley has a 7.7% win probability on Wednesday, Manchester City has a 78.7% win probability, and there is a 13.6% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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