Sep 18, 2026
Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions prediction favors Hawks to win Saturday's AFL Round 28 matchup [9/19/2026]
Read Article Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions prediction favors Dockers to win Saturday's AFL Round 29 matchup [9/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 50.1% win probability for the Dockers at Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG).
The Fremantle Dockers will square off with the Brisbane Lions in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, beginning at 12:30 AM ET.
Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Dockers as the most likely winner in this Lions vs. Dockers prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Dockers vs. Lions prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's AFL matchup between the Lions and Dockers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Dockers a 50.1% chance of beating the Lions. According to our model, the Dockers (+7.5) have a 60.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 180.5-point over/under has a 50.9% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Lions -149, Dockers +120
- Total: Over/Under 180.5 (-120/-105)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Dockers +7.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Dockers @ +120 via DraftKings
- Total: Under 180.5 @ -105 via DraftKings
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dockers +7.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first bounce details
Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Dockers and Lions at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 12:30 AM ET.
- Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Fremantle Dockers
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Time: 12:30 AM ET/9:30PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Dockers, with a 50.1% win probability, will likely beat the Lions in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary AFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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