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Read Article Essendon Bombers vs. Brisbane Lions prediction: Why Lions are favored to win Friday's AFL Round 8 matchup [5/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions predictions for AFL Friday.
AFL action continues on Friday at 10:35 PM ET as the Brisbane Lions take on the Essendon Bombers at Marvel Stadium.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Lions vs. Bombers game.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Bombers vs. Lions prediction: Who will win Round 8 game?
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's AFL matchup between the Lions and Bombers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lions an 89% chance of beating the Bombers.
According to our model, the Bombers (+46.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 191.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Brisbane vs. Essendon odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lions | Bombers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -1429 | +750 |
| Line (Spread) | -46.5 (-115) | +46.5 (-115) |
| Total | o191.5 (-115) | u191.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lions vs. Bombers picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bombers +46.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Bombers | +750 |
| Total | Under 191.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bombers +46.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Bombers vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Australian rules football game between the Bombers and Lions at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to start at 10:35 PM ET.
- Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers
- Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
- Time: 10:35 PM ET/7:35PM PT
- Venue: Marvel Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with an 89% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Friday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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