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Essendon Bombers vs. Brisbane Lions prediction: Why Lions are favored to win Friday's AFL Round 8 matchup [5/1/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions predictions for AFL Friday.
AFL action continues on Friday at 10:35 PM ET as the favored Brisbane Lions square off with the Essendon Bombers at Marvel Stadium.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Lions as the most likely winner of the Lions vs. Bombers game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Bombers vs. Lions prediction: Who will win Round 8 game?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's AFL game between the Lions and Bombers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Lions an 86% chance of beating the Bombers.
According to our model, the Bombers (+41.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 183.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Brisbane vs. Essendon odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lions | Bombers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -1111 | +600 |
| Line (Spread) | -41.5 (-120) | +41.5 (-105) |
| Total | o183.5 (-120) | u183.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lions vs. Bombers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bombers +41.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Bombers | +600 |
| Total | Under 183.5 | -105 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bombers +41.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Bombers vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Australian rules football matchup between the Bombers and Lions at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to commence at 10:35 PM ET.
- Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers
- Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
- Time: 10:35 PM ET/7:35PM PT
- Venue: Marvel Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Friday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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