Best MLB picks in Padres-Diamondbacks and A's-Rangers on Saturday, April 25 using Dimers' "Sweet Spot"

MLB bet: Athletics-Rangers over 8

Game: Athletics vs. Rangers

First pitch: 7:05 PM ET

First up, we'll look at A's vs. Rangers with our model cashing the Sweet Spot over of 8.5 last night thanks to a 9th-inning home run by Zack Gelof. Over their past 11 games, including their previous series vs. the Rangers, A's games have gone over 8 runs in 9 of them and over in 6 games for the Rangers.

Tonight, we have a 58.2% probability of another Over, with the round number of 8 giving us the out of a push in case it lands right on that number, with a 6.7% edge at -106 odds on FanDuel.

The only game to go under in the last series was between today's starters Jeffrey Springs and Mackenzie Gore, but the Dimers model projects the starters for a combined 5. 2 earned runs, with plenty of late-game chances as has been the case in each of their other four meetings so far.

MLB overs in this edge range have returned a 13.8% ROI over 129 comparable bets so far this season.

MLB bet: Padres-Diamondbacks under 16

Game: Padres vs. Diamondbacks

First pitch: 6:05 PM ET

Our other Sweet Spot play is in the Padres-Diamondbacks, with the Under of 16 runs. Yes, that says 16 runs on purpose.

Tonight's NL West clash is in Mexico City, where the elevation sees balls fly farther than even in Coors Field. But, even with those conditions, our data says the total is too high, with a 59.1% probability to go under, giving us a 6.5% edge at -111 odds on Fanatics.

Through four games at Mexico City in previous series, the first game went over with 27 total runs and 11 homers, tying an MLB record, with the following three games seeing 10, 16 and 10 runs, for a record of 2-1-1 to the under of 16.

Until their recent series vs. the White Sox, in which the Dimers model correctly identified two Sweet Spot overs, Arizona had a bottom-five offense in MLB, and the Padres rank 20th in runs scored.

Even with our pitcher projections showing starters Zac Gallen and German Marquez for a combined 8.3 earned runs, this game would still need to double that total to clear this line, and the Padres bullpen has the second-best ERA in baseball.

Today's Sweet Spot picks in the Dimers App.

Two ways to bet on the Sweet Spot

Bettors looking for a bigger payout can roll these Sweet Spot bets above into a single +263 parlay, where a $25 wager would return $91.11 based on the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

However, each of these bets comes with its own value and is recommended as a straight wager for the most long-term profitability. 

For the best of both worlds, consider allocating a small portion of your unit size as a side wager for the parlay alongside the straight bets, rather than investing completely into an all-or-nothing parlay.

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