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Best bets today for all sports: Thursday's picks include Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff tennis play [4/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get the best bets for Thursday, April 16, 2026.
Today’s best sports bets for April 16, 2026 are here, with Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff on the WTA Tour and Queretaro vs. Mazatlan in the Liga MX among the top plays identified by our model across Thursday’s schedule.
Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, searching the latest odds to discover genuine betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.
List of best bets for today [4/16, updated 10:31PM ET]
Below, you’ll find today’s top 10 bets, ranked by edge for Thursday, April 16, 2026.
Tennis: Karolina Muchova ML (+224)
- Edge: 6.5%
- Probability: 37.4%
- Tennis matchup: Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff (8:00AM ET, Friday)
Our model has identified value on Karolina Muchova to defeat Coco Gauff at +224 odds in their matchup at WTA Porsche Tennis Grand Prix (Stuttgart Open). A 37.4% probability produces an edge of 6.5%, making this the strongest play for today's sports action.
Liga MX: Queretaro vs. Mazatlan under 2.5 goals (-105)
- Edge: 6.4%
- Probability: 57.6%
- NRL matchup: Queretaro vs. Mazatlan (9:00PM ET, Friday)
Queretaro vs. Mazatlan under 2.5 goals carries a 6.4% edge and a probability of 57.6% at -105 odds, according to our model.
NRL: Storm -1.5 (-115)
- Edge: 6.1%
- Probability: 59.6%
- NRL Matchup: Storm vs. Raiders (4:00AM ET, Friday)
Storm -1.5 vs. Raiders at -115 odds shows a 6.1% edge, supported by a 59.6% probability in simulations.
Tennis: Karolina Muchova +4.5 (-130)
- Edge: 6.1%
- Probability: 62.6%
- Tennis Matchup: Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff (8:00AM ET, Friday)
A 6.1% edge and 62.6% probability make Karolina Muchova +4.5 vs. Coco Gauff at a value play in the Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff matchup, per our model.
MLB: Dodgers vs. Rockies over 9.5 runs (-122)
- Edge: 5.7%
- Probability: 60.7%
- MLB Matchup: Dodgers vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET, Friday)
Dodgers vs. Rockies over 9.5 runs at -122 odds presents a 5.7% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 60.7%.
MLB: Reds vs. Twins over 7.5 runs (-105)
- Edge: 5.4%
- Probability: 56.6%
- MLB Matchup: Reds vs. Twins (8:10PM ET, Friday)
Our model finds value on over 7.5 runs in Reds vs. Twins at -105 odds, supported by an edge of 5.4%.
MLB: Orioles vs. Guardians over 8 runs (-102)
- Edge: 5.2%
- Probability: 55.7%
- MLB Matchup: Orioles vs. Guardians (6:10PM ET, Friday)
Our model has uncovered value on Orioles vs. Guardians over 8 runs at -102 odds. A 55.7% probability produces a 5.2% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.
NRL: Panthers vs. Dolphins under 52.5 points (-110)
- Edge: 4.8%
- Probability: 57.2%
- NRL Matchup: Panthers vs. Dolphins (6:00AM ET, Friday)
A 4.8% edge on a 57.2% probability makes under 52.5 points at -110 odds a solid value play in today's Panthers vs. Dolphins matchup.
Liga MX: Pumas UNAM ML (+170)
- Edge: 3.7%
- Probability: 40.7%
- Liga MX Matchup: Pumas UNAM vs. San Luis (9:00PM ET, Friday)
Our model projects value on Pumas UNAM to win at +170 odds. A 40.7% probability produces a 3.7% edge, making Pumas UNAM the favorable ML play in Saturday’s Liga MX matchup.
Tennis: Mirra Andreeva vs. Iga Swiatek over 20.5 total games (-110)
- Edge: 3.4%
- Probability: 55.8%
- Tennis Matchup: Iga Swiatek vs. Mirra Andreeva (11:00AM ET, Friday)
Rounding out our top 10 bets, Iga Swiatek vs. Mirra Andreeva over 20.5 total games at -110 odds shows a 55.8% probability and a 3.4% edge.
Best sports bets today summary: Thursday, 4/16/2026
As of 10:31PM ET, here are our top bets by edge recommended by our model:
| Matchup | Bet | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muchova vs. Gauff (Tennis) | Karolina Muchova ML | +224 @ DraftKings | 6.5% | 37.4% |
| Queretaro vs. Mazatlan (Liga MX) | Under 2.5 Goals | -105 @ BetMGM | 6.4% | 57.6% |
| Storm vs. Raiders (NRL) | Storm -1.5 | -115 @ DraftKings | 6.1% | 59.6% |
| Muchova vs. Gauff (Tennis) | Karolina Muchova +4.5 Games | -130 @ FanDuel | 6.1% | 62.6% |
| Dodgers vs. Rockies (MLB) | Over 9.5 Runs | -122 @ FanDuel | 5.7% | 60.7% |
| Reds vs. Twins (MLB) | Over 7.5 Runs | -105 @ DraftKings | 5.4% | 56.6% |
| Orioles vs. Guardians (MLB) | Over 8 Runs | -102 @ FanDuel | 5.2% | 55.7% |
| Panthers vs. Dolphins (NRL) | Under 52.5 Points | -110 @ DraftKings | 4.8% | 57.2% |
| Pumas UNAM vs. San Luis (Liga MX) | Pumas UNAM ML | +170 @ DraftKings | 3.7% | 40.7% |
| Swiatek vs. Andreeva (Tennis) | Over 20.5 Total Games | -110 @ DraftKings | 3.4% | 55.8% |
List of upcoming matchups to bet on now [4/16/2026]
- NRL: Storm vs. Raiders (4:00AM ET, Friday)
- Tennis: Vit Kopriva vs. Flavio Cobolli (5:00AM ET, Friday)
- Tennis: Nuno Borges vs. Hamad Medjedovic (5:00AM ET, Friday)
- AFL: Bulldogs vs. Cats (5:20AM ET, Friday)
- AFL: Giants vs. Swans (5:50AM ET, Friday)
- NRL: Panthers vs. Dolphins (6:00AM ET, Friday)
- Tennis: Francisco Cerundolo vs. Alexander Zverev (6:10AM ET, Friday)
- Tennis: Elina Svitolina vs. Linda Noskova (6:30AM ET, Friday)
- Tennis: Ben Shelton vs. Joao Fonseca (7:20AM ET, Friday)
- Tennis: Tatjana Maria vs. Iryna Shymanovich (7:30AM ET, Friday)
Conclusion
Our best bets are locked and loaded for April 16, 2026, featuring plays such as Karolina Muchova ML and under 2.5 goals in the Queretaro vs. Mazatlan matchup. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.
Our predictions are rooted in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.
All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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