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Ben Shelton vs. Sebastian Baez prediction, odds, picks for ATP Auckland Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Shelton vs Baez predictions for ATP Auckland Open.
Ben Shelton and Sebastian Baez will meet in the quarterfinals of the ATP Auckland Open event on Thursday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Ben Shelton as the most likely winner of the Shelton vs. Baez match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Shelton vs. Baez prediction: Who will win and advance to the semifinals?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's Shelton-Baez men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives Shelton a 79% chance of winning against Baez at the ATP Auckland Open tournament.
Additionally, Shelton has a 74% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Shelton (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 22.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting**, according to our model.
Ben Shelton vs. Sebastian Baez odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Shelton | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -398 | +330 |
| First Set | -303 | +240 |
| Game Spread | +3.5 (+110) | -3.5 (-175) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-110) | u22.5 (-135) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Shelton vs. Baez picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Shelton | -398 |
| First Set | Baez | -135 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
Shelton vs. Baez updates and essential details
The ATP Auckland Open match between Ben Shelton and Sebastian Baez is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 1:10 AM ET.
- Who: Ben Shelton vs. Sebastian Baez
- Date: Thursday, January 15, 2026
- Approx. Time: 1:10 AM ET/10:10PM PT
- Tournament: ATP Auckland, New Zealand Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Quarterfinals
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Ben Shelton, with a 79% win probability, will likely beat Sebastian Baez at the ATP Auckland Open tournament.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Shelton vs. Baez insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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