Orioles vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [4/5/2026]

The Pittsburgh Pirates will square off with the Baltimore Orioles, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at PNC Park on Sunday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.

Braxton Ashcraft (0-1, 3.00 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Pirates, while the Orioles have opted for Chris Bassitt (0-1, 8.31 ERA).

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Orioles.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Orioles vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.

Orioles vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Orioles and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 54% chance of defeating the Orioles.

According to our model, the Orioles (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 52% chance of going over.

Orioles vs. Pirates odds [4/5/2026]

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Orioles vs. Pirates picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: