Arizona vs. SMU prediction: Southern Methodist favored to win Holiday Bowl [2026]

Southern Methodist and Arizona will clash in the 2026 Holiday Bowl at Snapdragon Stadium on Friday, with kickoff at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven college football model gives Southern Methodist a slight edge with a 53% win probability over Arizona.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's Arizona vs. SMU matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Holiday Bowl prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of the 2026 Holiday Bowl 10,000 times as part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Southern Methodist a 53% chance of defeating Arizona. Our predicted final score has Southern Methodist winning 26-25.

According to our model, Southern Methodist (+1.5) has a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 51.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of going over.

Holiday Bowl odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Arizona vs. SMU picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: