May 22, 2026
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Read Article Alex de Minaur vs. Tommy Paul prediction, odds, picks for ATP Hamburg Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get de Minaur vs Paul predictions for ATP Hamburg Open.
Alex de Minaur will square off with Tommy Paul in the semifinals at the ATP Hamburg event on Friday.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Alex de Minaur as the most likely winner of the de Minaur vs. Paul match.
This article offers further insights into Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
de Minaur vs. Paul prediction: Who will win and advance to the final?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's de Minaur-Paul men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives de Minaur a 54% chance of beating Paul at the ATP Hamburg Open tournament.
Additionally, de Minaur has a 54% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Paul (+1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Alex de Minaur vs. Tommy Paul odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | de Minaur | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -130 | +118 |
| First Set | -125 | +100 |
| Game Spread | -1.5 (-118) | +1.5 (-112) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-112) | u22.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
de Minaur vs. Paul picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Paul | +118 |
| First Set | Paul | -112 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Tommy Paul to win.
Although Paul is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
de Minaur vs. Paul updates and essential details
The ATP Hamburg Open match between Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul is scheduled to commence on Friday at 11:30 AM ET.
- Who: Alex de Minaur vs. Tommy Paul
- Date: Friday, May 22, 2026
- Approx. Time: 11:30 AM ET/8:30AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Hamburg, Germany Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Semifinals
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.
Conclusion
We predict Alex de Minaur, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat Tommy Paul at the ATP Hamburg Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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