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Alex de Minaur vs. Matteo Arnaldi prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get de Minaur vs Arnaldi predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Alex de Minaur will take on Matteo Arnaldi in the round of 64 at the ATP Rome event on Friday.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Alex de Minaur as the most likely winner of the de Minaur vs. Arnaldi match.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.
de Minaur vs. Arnaldi prediction: Who will win and advance to the round of 32?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's de Minaur-Arnaldi men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives de Minaur a 74% chance of winning against Arnaldi at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, de Minaur has a 70% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show de Minaur (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 21.5 games has a 52% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Alex de Minaur vs. Matteo Arnaldi odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | de Minaur | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -248 | +230 |
| First Set | -227 | +175 |
| Game Spread | -3.5 (-134) | +3.5 (+102) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-115) | u21.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
de Minaur vs. Arnaldi picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | de Minaur | -248 |
| First Set | Arnaldi | -115 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alex de Minaur to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
de Minaur vs. Arnaldi updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Alex de Minaur and Matteo Arnaldi is scheduled to start on Friday at 5:00 AM ET.
- Who: Alex de Minaur vs. Matteo Arnaldi
- Date: Friday, May 8, 2026
- Approx. Time: 5:00 AM ET/2:00AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 64
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Alex de Minaur, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat Matteo Arnaldi at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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