Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves prediction, odds, La Liga picks [8/20/2026]

Rayo Vallecano will square off with Alaves in La Liga action at Estadio Municipal de Butarque on Thursday, beginning at 3:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced La Liga model projects Rayo Vallecano as the most likely winner in this Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.

For more, take a look at our insight into the La Liga title race, and how Mourinho can lead Real Madrid back to the top.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's La Liga match between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 40.6% chance of Rayo Vallecano winning, a 31.4% chance for Alaves, and a 28.1% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 59.0% chance of staying under, with a 53.1% chance of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Alaves +270, Rayo Vallecano +150

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Alaves @ +270 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ +150 via BetRivers

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Alaves to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

• Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves (13.1% probability)
• Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves (12.3%)
• Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Alaves (10.5%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 46.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 53.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, which means the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's la-liga matchup between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves at Estadio Municipal de Butarque is scheduled to commence in the United States at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: Rayo Vallecano vs. Alaves
• Date: Thursday, August 20, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Rayo Vallecano has a 40.6% win probability on Thursday, Alaves has a 31.4% win probability, and there is a 28.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.