Newcastle vs. Liverpool prediction, odds, Premier League picks [8/23/2026]
Get Newcastle vs Liverpool predictions for Premier League Sunday.
Newcastle and Liverpool will lock horns in Week 1 of the Premier League on Sunday, August 23, starting at 11:30 AM ET.
Dimers' advanced Premier League model projects Liverpool as the most likely winner in this Newcastle vs. Liverpool prediction.
This article offers further insights into the match, including best bets and picks.
Newcastle vs. Liverpool prediction: Who will win?
Our leading predictive model currently indicates a 26.8% chance of Newcastle winning, a 51.5% chance for Liverpool, and a 21.7% chance of a draw.
Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 65.9% chance of going over, with a 65.1% probability that both teams score.
Newcastle vs. Liverpool odds
We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Liverpool @ +110 via BetMGM
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -200 via Bet365
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Newcastle vs. Liverpool picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Liverpool @ +110 via BetMGM
- Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -200 via Bet365 According to our best Premier League bets, the top play to make on this game is Liverpool to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Newcastle vs. Liverpool: Correct score and BTTS predictions
Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-1 Liverpool win being the most probable:
- Newcastle 1-2 Liverpool (9.4% probability)
- Newcastle 1-1 Liverpool (9.4%)
- Newcastle 0-2 Liverpool (6.7%)
When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 65.1% chance of both sides finding the net and a 34.9% chance that at least one doesn’t.
Newcastle vs. Liverpool game-day updates and essential details
The Premier League game between Newcastle and Liverpool is scheduled to start in the USA at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, August 23, 2026.
Conclusion
According to our computer model, Newcastle has a 26.8% win probability, Liverpool has a 51.5% win probability, and there is a 21.7% chance that the game will end in a draw.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
