Valentin Vacherot vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's Vacherot-Tsitsipas men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Tsitsipas a 57% chance of beating Vacherot at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Tsitsipas has a 55% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Tsitsipas (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 25.5 games has a 61% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Stefanos Tsitsipas -170, Valentin Vacherot +141
• First Set: Vacherot +130, Tsitsipas -164

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Vacherot @ +141 via DraftKings
• First Set: Tsitsipas @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Valentin Vacherot to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Valentin Vacherot and Stefanos Tsitsipas is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 11:10 PM ET.

• Who: Valentin Vacherot vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
• Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026
• Approx. Time: 11:10 PM ET/8:10PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 16

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Stefanos Tsitsipas, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat Valentin Vacherot at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.