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Read Article Bernard Tomic vs. Matteo Arnaldi prediction, odds, picks for ATP Shanghai Masters 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Tomic vs Arnaldi predictions for ATP Shanghai Masters.
Bernard Tomic will square off with Matteo Arnaldi in the round of 128 at the ATP Shanghai event on Thursday.
Dimers' proven tennis model projects Matteo Arnaldi as the most likely winner in this Tomic vs. Arnaldi prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Tomic vs. Arnaldi prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's Tomic-Arnaldi men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives Arnaldi a 58% chance of defeating Tomic at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Matteo Arnaldi -205, Bernard Tomic +174
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Moneyline: Tomic @ +174 via DraftKings
- First Set: Arnaldi @ -140 via DraftKings
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Bernard Tomic to win.
Although Tomic is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first serve details
The ATP Shanghai Masters match between Bernard Tomic and Matteo Arnaldi is scheduled to commence on Thursday at 12:00 AM ET.
- Who: Bernard Tomic vs. Matteo Arnaldi
- Date: Thursday, October 8, 2026
- Approx. Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
- Tournament: ATP Shanghai, China Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Matteo Arnaldi, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat Bernard Tomic at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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