Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Rafael Jodar prediction, odds, picks for ATP Japan Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's Vallejo-Jodar men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Jodar a 78% chance of beating Vallejo at the ATP Japan Open tournament. Additionally, Jodar has a 73% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Vallejo (+4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Rafael Jodar -431, Adolfo Vallejo +350
• First Set: Vallejo +300, Jodar -400

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Vallejo @ +350 via DraftKings
• First Set: Jodar @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 21.5 total games.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Japan Open match between Adolfo Daniel Vallejo and Rafael Jodar is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 4:10 AM ET.

• Who: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Rafael Jodar
• Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026
• Approx. Time: 4:10 AM ET/1:10AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Tokyo, Japan Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Rafael Jodar, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat Adolfo Vallejo at the ATP Japan Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.