Penguins vs. Avalanche Prediction, Picks & Odds

Penguins vs. Avalanche prediction & analysis

Game overview: NHL Friday

• Teams: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Colorado Avalanche
• Date: Friday, October 16, 2026
• Puck drop: 9:00PM ET
• Venue: Ball Arena

Current betting odds

• Puck line: Penguins (+1.5, -130), Avalanche (-1.5, +125)
• Moneyline: Penguins +186, Avalanche -192
• Total (Over/Under): 6.5 goals (-113/+111)

Dimers’ win probabilities

• Penguins: 36.6%
• Avalanche: 63.4%

Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.

It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.

Penguins vs. Avalanche player props & projections

Our highest anytime goalscorer probabilities for this game are:

• Sidney Crosby, Penguins: 28.7%
• Bryan Rust, Penguins: 27.9%
• Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche: 44.1%
• Martin Necas, Avalanche: 37.4%

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Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Penguins a win probability of 36.6%, while the Avalanche have a win probability of 63.4%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Avalanche are more likely to beat the Penguins in the NHL game at Ball Arena on Friday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

Responsible gambling

Dimers’ predictions and betting insights are here to inform your decisions, not to make them for you. If you are betting on Penguins vs. Avalanche, set your limits in advance and stay within them. For support, visit our responsible gambling resources.

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