Lightning vs. Flyers Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Flyers NHL game on January 10, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Lightning
7
2
Xfinity Mobile Arena
Flyers
Xfinity Mobile Arena
TEAM123T
Lightning
2 1 4 7
Flyers
1 0 1 2
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    100%
  • Flyers
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
2 1 4 7
Flyers
1 0 1 2
P3 16:39 Shot on goal by Emil Andrae saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 16:27 Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Emil Andrae
P3 16:17 Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Samuel Ersson
P3 15:00 Shot missed by Garnet Hathaway
P3 14:25 Power play - Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 12:07 Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 10:59 Goal scored by Gage Goncalves assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point
P3 09:00 Goal scored by Yanni Gourde assisted by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 06:23 Shot missed by Max Crozier
P3 06:02 Declan Carlile shot blocked by Noah Juulsen
P3 06:00 Shot missed by Max Crozier
P3 05:44 Shot on goal by Declan Carlile saved by Samuel Ersson
P3 05:14 Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Samuel Ersson
P3 04:45 Power play - Goal scored by Owen Tippett assisted by Christian Dvorak
P3 04:41 Power play - Shot on goal by Cam York saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 03:36 Goal scored by Brandon Hagel
P3 03:29 Denver Barkey shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
P3 03:02 Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P3 02:28 Lightning shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
P3 02:03 Goal scored by Gage Goncalves
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 18:39
    Emil Andrae credited with hit on Nick Paul in defensive zone
  3. P3 16:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Andrae saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  4. P3 16:28
    Dominic James won faceoff against Noah Cates in offensive zone
  5. P3 16:28
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  6. P3 16:27
    SHOT
    Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Emil Andrae
  7. P3 16:23
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Rodrigo Abols in offensive zone
  8. P3 16:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  9. P3 16:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Samuel Ersson
  10. P3 15:33
    Takeaway by Dominic James in defensive zone
  11. P3 15:06
    Giveaway by J.J. Moser in defensive zone
  12. P3 15:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Garnet Hathaway
  13. P3 14:25
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  14. P3 12:53
    Power play - Nick Paul won faceoff against Sean Couturier in offensive zone
  15. P3 12:53
    Penalty to Garnet Hathaway 2 minutes for High Sticking (Drawn by Declan Carlile)
  16. P3 12:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  17. P3 11:37
    Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  18. P3 11:37
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches - TV timeout
  19. P3 11:00
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Owen Tippett in neutral zone
  20. P3 10:59
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Gage Goncalves assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point
    7-2
  21. P3 10:30
    Noah Cates won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  22. P3 10:30
    Stoppage - Icing
  23. P3 09:00
    Rodrigo Abols won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  24. P3 09:00
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Yanni Gourde assisted by Zemgus Girgensons
    6-2
  25. P3 07:52
    Denver Barkey credited with hit on Gage Goncalves in offensive zone
  26. P3 07:14
    Nikita Grebenkin credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in offensive zone
  27. P3 06:23
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Max Crozier
  28. P3 06:02
    SHOT
    Declan Carlile shot blocked by Noah Juulsen
  29. P3 06:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Max Crozier
  30. P3 05:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Declan Carlile saved by Samuel Ersson
  31. P3 05:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Samuel Ersson
  32. P3 04:45
    Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  33. P3 04:45
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Owen Tippett assisted by Christian Dvorak
    5-2
  34. P3 04:43
    Power play - Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  35. P3 04:43
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  36. P3 04:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Cam York saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  37. P3 04:13
    Power play - Noah Cates won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  38. P3 04:13
    Penalty to Gage Goncalves 2 minutes for High Sticking
  39. P3 03:37
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Christian Dvorak in neutral zone
  40. P3 03:36
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brandon Hagel
    5-1
  41. P3 03:29
    SHOT
    Denver Barkey shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
  42. P3 03:02
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
  43. P3 03:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sean Couturier in offensive zone
  44. P3 03:00
    Stoppage - Icing
  45. P3 02:53
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  46. P3 02:53
    Stoppage - Hand Pass
  47. P3 02:28
    SHOT
    Lightning shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
  48. P3 02:03
    Dominic James won faceoff against Rodrigo Abols in neutral zone
  49. P3 02:03
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Gage Goncalves
    4-1
  50. P3 01:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Trevor Zegras
  51. P3 01:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  52. P3 01:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Carl Grundstrom saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  53. P3 01:03
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Travis Sanheim
  54. P3 00:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sean Couturier in neutral zone
  55. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  56. P2 19:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Trevor Zegras
  57. P2 19:05
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Trevor Zegras in defensive zone
  58. P2 19:05
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  59. P2 18:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Sean Couturier
  60. P2 17:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  61. P2 17:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Samuel Ersson
  62. P2 17:25
    SHOT
    Shot missed by J.J. Moser
  63. P2 16:52
    Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  64. P2 16:52
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  65. P2 16:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Cam York saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  66. P2 16:26
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  67. P2 16:26
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  68. P2 15:11
    Nikita Grebenkin credited with hit on Nick Paul in neutral zone
  69. P2 15:01
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Trevor Zegras in defensive zone
  70. P2 15:01
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  71. P2 15:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Christian Dvorak
  72. P2 14:44
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Christian Dvorak in neutral zone
  73. P2 14:44
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  74. P2 14:43
    Giveaway by Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  75. P2 14:31
    Noah Cates won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  76. P2 14:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Grebenkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  77. P2 14:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Samuel Ersson
  78. P2 13:37
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Trevor Zegras in neutral zone
  79. P2 13:36
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jake Guentzel
    2-1
  80. P2 13:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Samuel Ersson
  81. P2 13:33
    SHOT
    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Nick Seeler
  82. P2 12:57
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  83. P2 11:15
    Nicolas Deslauriers credited with hit on Max Crozier in offensive zone
  84. P2 11:11
    Dominic James credited with hit on Garnet Hathaway in offensive zone
  85. P2 10:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rodrigo Abols
  86. P2 10:40
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Rodrigo Abols in offensive zone
  87. P2 10:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  88. P2 10:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Samuel Ersson
  89. P2 10:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matvei Michkov saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  90. P2 10:06
    SHOT
    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Noah Juulsen
  91. P2 09:22
    SHOT
    Emil Andrae shot blocked by teammate
  92. P2 08:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Noah Cates saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  93. P2 07:42
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Christian Dvorak in offensive zone
  94. P2 07:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Flyers
  95. P2 07:42
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  96. P2 07:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Samuel Ersson
  97. P2 07:23
    SHOT
    Noah Cates shot blocked by teammate
  98. P2 07:21
    SHOT
    Cam York shot blocked by teammate
  99. P2 07:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicolas Deslauriers
  100. P2 06:39
    SHOT
    Lightning shot blocked by Noah Juulsen
  101. P2 06:14
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Owen Tippett
  102. P2 06:05
    Giveaway by Nick Seeler in defensive zone
  103. P2 05:51
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sean Couturier in offensive zone
  104. P2 05:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  105. P2 05:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Samuel Ersson
  106. P2 04:47
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Carl Grundstrom
  107. P2 03:59
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Christian Dvorak in offensive zone
  108. P2 03:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  109. P2 02:45
    Dominic James won faceoff against Rodrigo Abols in neutral zone
  110. P2 02:42
    SHOT
    Max Crozier shot blocked by Emil Andrae
  111. P2 02:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Samuel Ersson
  112. P2 02:06
    SHOT
    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Owen Tippett
  113. P2 01:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Ristolainen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  114. P2 01:42
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  115. P2 01:42
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  116. P2 00:42
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Travis Sanheim in defensive zone
  117. P2 00:29
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Travis Sanheim saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  118. P2 00:05
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Christian Dvorak saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  119. P2 00:00
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Sean Couturier in neutral zone
  120. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  121. P1 19:52
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Samuel Ersson
  122. P1 19:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen
  123. P1 19:05
    SHOT
    Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen
  124. P1 18:55
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Sean Couturier in offensive zone
  125. P1 18:55
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  126. P1 18:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Samuel Ersson
  127. P1 17:58
    Max Crozier credited with hit on Noah Cates in defensive zone
  128. P1 17:48
    Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  129. P1 17:48
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  130. P1 17:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Seeler
  131. P1 17:05
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Grebenkin
  132. P1 16:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Samuel Ersson
  133. P1 15:22
    Sean Couturier won faceoff against Gage Goncalves in defensive zone
  134. P1 15:22
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
  135. P1 14:15
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Christian Dvorak
  136. P1 13:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Owen Tippett saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  137. P1 13:49
    SHOT
    Power play - Cam York shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  138. P1 13:34
    SHOT
    Power play - Owen Tippett shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  139. P1 13:27
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Matvei Michkov
  140. P1 13:17
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  141. P1 13:13
    Shorthanded - Nick Paul won faceoff against Christian Dvorak in defensive zone
  142. P1 12:25
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sean Couturier in neutral zone
  143. P1 12:25
    Stoppage - Offside
  144. P1 12:10
    Takeaway by Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  145. P1 11:51
    SHOT
    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Trevor Zegras
  146. P1 11:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Christian Dvorak saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  147. P1 10:45
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Christian Dvorak in offensive zone
  148. P1 10:45
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  149. P1 10:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by J.J. Moser
  150. P1 09:37
    Giveaway by Noah Cates in neutral zone
  151. P1 09:34
    Giveaway by Brayden Point in neutral zone
  152. P1 09:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  153. P1 09:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by J.J. Moser
  154. P1 08:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Sean Couturier in neutral zone
  155. P1 08:00
    Penalty to Declan Carlile 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Garnet Hathaway)
  156. P1 08:00
    Penalty to Garnet Hathaway 2 minutes for Misconduct
  157. P1 07:03
    Noah Cates credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in offensive zone
  158. P1 06:49
    Dominic James won faceoff against Noah Cates in offensive zone
  159. P1 06:49
    Stoppage - Icing
  160. P1 06:42
    Noah Cates won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  161. P1 06:42
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  162. P1 06:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Samuel Ersson
  163. P1 06:24
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Noah Juulsen in offensive zone
  164. P1 06:05
    Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  165. P1 06:04
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov
    2-1
  166. P1 05:34
    SHOT
    Sean Couturier shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  167. P1 05:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Owen Tippett saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  168. P1 05:03
    SHOT
    Max Crozier shot blocked by Nicolas Deslauriers
  169. P1 04:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Declan Carlile saved by Samuel Ersson
  170. P1 04:15
    Rodrigo Abols won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  171. P1 04:15
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Garnet Hathaway assisted by Noah Juulsen and Rodrigo Abols
    1-1
  172. P1 04:00
    Rodrigo Abols won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  173. P1 04:00
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  174. P1 03:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Seeler saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  175. P1 03:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Christian Dvorak saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  176. P1 03:09
    Giveaway by Declan Carlile in defensive zone
  177. P1 02:46
    Dominic James won faceoff against Christian Dvorak in defensive zone
  178. P1 02:46
    Stoppage - Icing
  179. P1 02:37
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Rodrigo Abols
  180. P1 02:37
    Giveaway by Max Crozier in defensive zone
  181. P1 01:49
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Sean Couturier in neutral zone
  182. P1 01:49
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Brayden Point
    1-1
  183. P1 00:54
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Matvei Michkov
  184. P1 00:52
    Giveaway by Trevor Zegras in defensive zone
  185. P1 00:38
    Darren Raddysh credited with hit on Emil Andrae in defensive zone
  186. P1 00:31
    Christian Dvorak won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  187. P1 00:31
    Stoppage - Offside
  188. P1 00:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  189. P1 00:03
    Nikita Grebenkin credited with hit on Erik Cernak in neutral zone
  190. P1 00:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Noah Cates in neutral zone
  191. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Flyers
23Shots on Goal20
63% Faceoff Win % 37%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/1
9Penalty Infraction Mins9
18Hits32
6 Shots Blocked 14
15Giveaways14
LightningTB
FlyersPHI
23Shots on Goal20
63% Faceoff Win % 37%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/1
9Penalty Infraction Mins9
18Hits32
6 Shots Blocked 14
15Giveaways14

Lightning vs. Flyers: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Flyers
  • Date: Saturday, January 10, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning -176, Flyers +158

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 60%
  • Flyers: 40%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 60%, while the Flyers have a win probability of 40%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Flyers in the NHL game at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Flyers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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