Maple Leafs vs. Stars Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Stars NHL game on December 21, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Maple Leafs
1
5
American Airlines Center
Stars
American Airlines Center
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 0 1 1
Stars
1 0 4 5
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Stars
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 0 1 1
Stars
1 0 4 5
P3 19:42 Shot on goal by Justin Hryckowian saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 19:40 Thomas Harley shot blocked by Philippe Myers
P3 18:08 Philippe Myers shot blocked by Oskar Back
P3 17:54 Shot on goal by Mavrik Bourque saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 17:30 Shot missed by Matt Duchene
P3 17:23 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 17:14 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 17:09 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 16:37 Shot missed by Thomas Harley
P3 15:28 Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by teammate
P3 14:38 Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P3 14:07 Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P3 13:36 Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 12:40 Shot on goal by Roope Hintz saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 12:10 Goal scored by Jamie Benn
P3 11:42 Shot missed by Jamie Benn
P3 10:43 Shot missed by Esa Lindell
P3 10:41 Shot missed by Miro Heiskanen
P3 09:01 Shot on goal by Radek Faksa saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 08:39 Goal scored by Scott Laughton
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:43
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Colin Blackwell in neutral zone
  3. P3 19:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Justin Hryckowian saved by Dennis Hildeby
  4. P3 19:40
    SHOT
    Thomas Harley shot blocked by Philippe Myers
  5. P3 18:30
    Radek Faksa won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  6. P3 18:30
    Stoppage - Offside
  7. P3 18:08
    SHOT
    Philippe Myers shot blocked by Oskar Back
  8. P3 17:55
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in neutral zone
  9. P3 17:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mavrik Bourque saved by Dennis Hildeby
  10. P3 17:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matt Duchene
  11. P3 17:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jake Oettinger
  12. P3 17:16
    Radek Faksa won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  13. P3 17:16
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  14. P3 17:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jake Oettinger
  15. P3 17:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  16. P3 16:37
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Harley
  17. P3 16:33
    Wyatt Johnston won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  18. P3 16:33
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
  19. P3 16:33
    Stoppage - Icing
  20. P3 15:28
    SHOT
    Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by teammate
  21. P3 15:26
    Stoppage - Icing
  22. P3 14:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  23. P3 14:36
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Stars in offensive zone
  24. P3 14:36
    Stoppage
  25. P3 14:17
    Stoppage - Icing
  26. P3 14:17
    William Nylander won faceoff against Stars in offensive zone
  27. P3 14:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bobby McMann
  28. P3 13:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Jake Oettinger
  29. P3 13:25
    Alexander Petrovic credited with hit on Scott Laughton in defensive zone
  30. P3 13:22
    Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Wyatt Johnston in offensive zone
  31. P3 13:20
    Ilya Lyubushkin credited with hit on Steven Lorentz in defensive zone
  32. P3 12:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Roope Hintz saved by Dennis Hildeby
  33. P3 12:21
    Giveaway by Max Domi in neutral zone
  34. P3 12:10
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
  35. P3 12:10
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jamie Benn
    1-2
  36. P3 12:02
    Giveaway by Simon Benoit in defensive zone
  37. P3 11:44
    John Tavares won faceoff against Stars in defensive zone
  38. P3 11:44
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  39. P3 11:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jamie Benn
  40. P3 10:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Esa Lindell
  41. P3 10:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Miro Heiskanen
  42. P3 09:57
    Alexander Petrovic credited with hit on Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  43. P3 09:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Radek Faksa saved by Dennis Hildeby
  44. P3 08:39
    William Nylander won faceoff against Colin Blackwell in neutral zone
  45. P3 08:39
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Scott Laughton
    1-2
  46. P3 08:30
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matt Duchene saved by Dennis Hildeby
  47. P3 07:07
    Power play - Giveaway by Mikko Rantanen in offensive zone
  48. P3 06:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Wyatt Johnston
  49. P3 06:36
    Power play - Roope Hintz won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  50. P3 06:36
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  51. P3 06:36
    Penalty to Philippe Myers 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Roope Hintz)
  52. P3 06:28
    SHOT
    Nicolas Roy shot blocked by Esa Lindell
  53. P3 06:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Jake Oettinger
  54. P3 06:07
    Giveaway by Nicholas Robertson in offensive zone
  55. P3 05:03
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Colin Blackwell in neutral zone
  56. P3 05:03
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Stars
    0-2
  57. P3 04:46
    Takeaway by Thomas Harley in neutral zone
  58. P3 04:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Harley
  59. P3 03:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  60. P3 03:48
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Matt Duchene in offensive zone
  61. P3 03:22
    Matthew Knies credited with hit on Mavrik Bourque in neutral zone
  62. P3 01:10
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Stars in defensive zone
  63. P3 01:10
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  64. P3 01:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mavrik Bourque saved by Dennis Hildeby
  65. P3 01:06
    SHOT
    Roope Hintz shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  66. P3 01:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mavrik Bourque saved by Dennis Hildeby
  67. P3 00:38
    SHOT
    Matt Duchene shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  68. P3 00:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Jake Oettinger
  69. P3 00:00
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Matt Duchene in neutral zone
  70. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  71. P2 19:56
    SHOT
    Simon Benoit shot blocked by Thomas Harley
  72. P2 19:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Jake Oettinger
  73. P2 19:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Jake Oettinger
  74. P2 19:28
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  75. P2 19:01
    Shorthanded - Roope Hintz won faceoff against William Nylander in defensive zone
  76. P2 19:01
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  77. P2 19:00
    SHOT
    Power play - John Tavares shot blocked by Radek Faksa
  78. P2 18:34
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Oskar Back in defensive zone
  79. P2 18:01
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Jake Oettinger
  80. P2 17:47
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Jake Oettinger
  81. P2 17:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Jake Oettinger
  82. P2 17:05
    Power play - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Sam Steel in offensive zone
  83. P2 17:05
    Penalty to Thomas Harley 2 minutes for High Sticking
  84. P2 17:03
    SHOT
    Nicolas Roy shot blocked by Alexander Petrovic
  85. P2 16:45
    SHOT
    Jake McCabe shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin
  86. P2 16:29
    Power play - Takeaway by John Tavares in neutral zone
  87. P2 16:28
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Colin Blackwell in neutral zone
  88. P2 16:14
    Shorthanded - Alexander Petrovic credited with hit on John Tavares in defensive zone
  89. P2 15:09
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Jake Oettinger
  90. P2 14:37
    Power play - Giveaway by Nicholas Robertson in offensive zone
  91. P2 14:31
    Power play - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Radek Faksa in offensive zone
  92. P2 14:31
    Penalty to Ilya Lyubushkin 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Scott Laughton)
  93. P2 14:26
    SHOT
    Ilya Lyubushkin shot blocked by Scott Laughton
  94. P2 12:34
    SHOT
    Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Wyatt Johnston
  95. P2 11:42
    SHOT
    Power play - Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Auston Matthews
  96. P2 11:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Mikko Rantanen
  97. P2 10:25
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Steven Lorentz in neutral zone
  98. P2 10:17
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Roope Hintz in defensive zone
  99. P2 10:17
    Penalty to John Tavares 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Jason Robertson)
  100. P2 10:03
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
  101. P2 09:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by William Nylander
  102. P2 09:38
    William Nylander won faceoff against Roope Hintz in offensive zone
  103. P2 09:38
    Stoppage - Icing
  104. P2 09:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mavrik Bourque saved by Dennis Hildeby
  105. P2 09:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Stars saved by Dennis Hildeby
  106. P2 09:18
    Stoppage - Offside
  107. P2 08:32
    Colin Blackwell credited with hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in offensive zone
  108. P2 08:27
    Maple Leafs challenge (Offside), call reversed
  109. P2 08:27
    Stoppage - Visitor Timeout
  110. P2 08:27
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Mavrik Bourque assisted by Roope Hintz
    0-2
  111. P2 08:26
    Steven Lorentz credited with hit on Ilya Lyubushkin in offensive zone
  112. P2 08:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Roope Hintz saved by Dennis Hildeby
  113. P2 08:24
    Giveaway by Max Domi in defensive zone
  114. P2 08:18
    Radek Faksa won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  115. P2 08:04
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  116. P2 08:04
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  117. P2 08:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Jake Oettinger
  118. P2 07:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Troy Stecher
  119. P2 07:55
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Roope Hintz in offensive zone
  120. P2 07:55
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  121. P2 07:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Jake Oettinger
  122. P2 07:33
    Philippe Myers credited with hit on Jamie Benn in defensive zone
  123. P2 07:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Hryckowian
  124. P2 07:13
    Sam Steel won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  125. P2 07:13
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  126. P2 07:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jake Oettinger
  127. P2 06:56
    SHOT
    Matias Maccelli shot blocked by Alexander Petrovic
  128. P2 06:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Wyatt Johnston saved by Dennis Hildeby
  129. P2 06:28
    SHOT
    Bobby McMann shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin
  130. P2 06:19
    SHOT
    Mikko Rantanen shot blocked by teammate
  131. P2 06:00
    Mikko Rantanen won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  132. P2 06:00
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  133. P2 05:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Esa Lindell saved by Dennis Hildeby
  134. P2 05:41
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in neutral zone
  135. P2 05:27
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  136. P2 05:23
    Power play - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in offensive zone
  137. P2 05:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  138. P2 05:22
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jake Oettinger
  139. P2 05:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Jake Oettinger
  140. P2 04:45
    Power play - Nicolas Roy credited with hit on Esa Lindell in offensive zone
  141. P2 04:31
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  142. P2 03:31
    Bobby McMann won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in offensive zone
  143. P2 03:31
    Penalty to Jason Robertson 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Morgan Rielly)
  144. P2 03:10
    Power play - Mikko Rantanen credited with hit on Simon Benoit in offensive zone
  145. P2 02:51
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jason Robertson saved by Dennis Hildeby
  146. P2 02:21
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  147. P2 02:17
    Shorthanded - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in defensive zone
  148. P2 02:17
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  149. P2 01:54
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Roope Hintz in defensive zone
  150. P2 01:54
    Penalty to Matias Maccelli 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Mikko Rantanen)
  151. P2 01:04
    Roope Hintz won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
  152. P2 01:01
    SHOT
    Mavrik Bourque shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  153. P2 00:52
    Mavrik Bourque won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  154. P2 00:52
    Stoppage - Icing
  155. P2 00:37
    Simon Benoit credited with hit on Colin Blackwell in defensive zone
  156. P2 00:36
    SHOT
    Colin Blackwell shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  157. P2 00:25
    Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Thomas Harley in offensive zone
  158. P2 00:24
    Giveaway by Steven Lorentz in neutral zone
  159. P2 00:16
    Giveaway by Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  160. P2 00:00
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Radek Faksa in neutral zone
  161. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  162. P1 19:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Jake Oettinger
  163. P1 19:37
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in defensive zone
  164. P1 19:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  165. P1 19:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alexander Petrovic saved by Dennis Hildeby
  166. P1 19:27
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Harley
  167. P1 19:26
    Bobby McMann credited with hit on Alexander Petrovic in defensive zone
  168. P1 18:40
    SHOT
    Steven Lorentz shot blocked by Nils Lundkvist
  169. P1 18:30
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in neutral zone
  170. P1 18:30
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jason Robertson assisted by Oskar Back
    0-1
  171. P1 18:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jake Oettinger
  172. P1 17:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin
  173. P1 17:05
    SHOT
    Power play - Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Sam Steel
  174. P1 16:15
    Power play - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Radek Faksa in offensive zone
  175. P1 16:15
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  176. P1 16:15
    Penalty to Miro Heiskanen 2 minutes for Delay of Game
  177. P1 15:51
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Sam Steel in defensive zone
  178. P1 15:51
    Stoppage - Icing
  179. P1 15:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Scott Laughton
  180. P1 15:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Jake Oettinger
  181. P1 14:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Jake Oettinger
  182. P1 13:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mikko Rantanen
  183. P1 13:33
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Matt Duchene in defensive zone
  184. P1 13:33
    Stoppage - Icing
  185. P1 12:20
    Steven Lorentz credited with hit on Alexander Petrovic in offensive zone
  186. P1 12:04
    Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Thomas Harley in offensive zone
  187. P1 10:24
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in defensive zone
  188. P1 10:24
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  189. P1 10:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Hryckowian
  190. P1 09:33
    SHOT
    Scott Laughton shot blocked by Alexander Petrovic
  191. P1 08:25
    SHOT
    William Nylander shot blocked by teammate
  192. P1 08:22
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Matt Duchene
  193. P1 08:21
    John Tavares won faceoff against Mikko Rantanen in offensive zone
  194. P1 08:21
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  195. P1 08:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Jake Oettinger
  196. P1 07:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bobby McMann
  197. P1 07:28
    SHOT
    Simon Benoit shot blocked by teammate
  198. P1 07:06
    Nicholas Robertson credited with hit on Justin Hryckowian in defensive zone
  199. P1 06:50
    Sam Steel won faceoff against Nicholas Robertson in defensive zone
  200. P1 06:50
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  201. P1 06:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Jake Oettinger
  202. P1 05:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matt Duchene
  203. P1 05:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nils Lundkvist
  204. P1 04:48
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by teammate
  205. P1 04:05
    SHOT
    Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Philippe Myers
  206. P1 03:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Justin Hryckowian saved by Dennis Hildeby
  207. P1 03:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jamie Benn saved by Dennis Hildeby
  208. P1 02:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
  209. P1 02:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  210. P1 01:38
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by teammate
  211. P1 01:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Philippe Myers
  212. P1 01:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  213. P1 01:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Roope Hintz
  214. P1 00:02
    Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Nils Lundkvist in neutral zone
  215. P1 00:00
    Colin Blackwell won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  216. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Stars
28Shots on Goal22
61% Faceoff Win % 39%
4/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins8
24Hits11
9 Shots Blocked 12
24Giveaways10
Maple LeafsTOR
StarsDAL
28Shots on Goal22
61% Faceoff Win % 39%
4/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins8
24Hits11
9 Shots Blocked 12
24Giveaways10

Maple Leafs vs. Stars: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Stars
  • Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: American Airlines Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Stars favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +185, Stars -215

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 38%
  • Stars: 62%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 38%, while the Stars have a win probability of 62%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Stars are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at American Airlines Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Stars predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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