Maple Leafs vs. Capitals Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Capitals NHL game on December 18, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Maple Leafs
0
4
Capital One Arena
Capitals
Capital One Arena
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 0 0 0
Capitals
2 0 2 4
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Capitals
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 0 0 0
Capitals
2 0 2 4
P3 18:40 Nicolas Roy shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
P3 18:21 Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
P3 17:45 Shot missed by Nic Dowd
P3 16:35 Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
P3 15:27 Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Logan Thompson
P3 15:24 Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
P3 14:31 Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Dennis Hildeby
P3 14:24 Matt Roy shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:44 Shot on goal by Steven Lorentz saved by Logan Thompson
P3 13:22 Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P3 13:03 Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 11:49 Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
P3 11:21 Shot missed by John Tavares
P3 11:20 Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Logan Thompson
P3 10:58 Matt Roy shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
P3 10:32 Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 10:07 Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Simon Benoit
P3 09:27 Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Logan Thompson
P3 08:57 Goal scored by John Carlson
P3 08:53 Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:10
    Simon Benoit credited with hit on Rasmus Sandin in defensive zone
  3. P3 18:40
    SHOT
    Nicolas Roy shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
  4. P3 18:27
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  5. P3 18:27
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  6. P3 18:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
  7. P3 18:10
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  8. P3 18:10
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  9. P3 17:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nic Dowd
  10. P3 16:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
  11. P3 16:22
    Giveaway by Scott Laughton in defensive zone
  12. P3 15:56
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  13. P3 15:56
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  14. P3 15:36
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  15. P3 15:36
    Stoppage - Icing
  16. P3 15:29
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against William Nylander in defensive zone
  17. P3 15:29
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  18. P3 15:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Logan Thompson
  19. P3 15:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
  20. P3 15:13
    Martin Fehervary credited with hit on Dakota Joshua in neutral zone
  21. P3 14:42
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  22. P3 14:42
    Stoppage - Icing
  23. P3 14:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Dennis Hildeby
  24. P3 14:24
    SHOT
    Matt Roy shot blocked by teammate
  25. P3 13:46
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  26. P3 13:46
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  27. P3 13:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Steven Lorentz saved by Logan Thompson
  28. P3 13:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake McCabe
  29. P3 13:03
    SHOT
    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  30. P3 11:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
  31. P3 11:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  32. P3 11:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Logan Thompson
  33. P3 10:58
    SHOT
    Matt Roy shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
  34. P3 10:32
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Strome
  35. P3 10:07
    SHOT
    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  36. P3 09:30
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in defensive zone
  37. P3 09:30
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  38. P3 09:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Logan Thompson
  39. P3 08:57
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  40. P3 08:57
    GOAL
    Goal scored by John Carlson
    0-4
  41. P3 08:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
  42. P3 08:44
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  43. P3 08:44
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  44. P3 08:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Logan Thompson
  45. P3 08:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
  46. P3 08:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Dennis Hildeby
  47. P3 07:48
    Takeaway by Dakota Joshua in offensive zone
  48. P3 07:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Logan Thompson
  49. P3 07:08
    Jake McCabe credited with hit on Declan Chisholm in neutral zone
  50. P3 07:03
    Steven Lorentz credited with hit on Tom Wilson in offensive zone
  51. P3 06:18
    SHOT
    Power play - Easton Cowan shot blocked by Matt Roy
  52. P3 06:11
    SHOT
    Power play - Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Anthony Beauvillier
  53. P3 05:45
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Logan Thompson
  54. P3 05:39
    SHOT
    Power play - Max Domi shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
  55. P3 05:38
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Logan Thompson
  56. P3 05:31
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Rasmus Sandin in defensive zone
  57. P3 05:25
    Power play - Max Domi won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
  58. P3 05:25
    Stoppage - Offside
  59. P3 04:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  60. P3 04:42
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Nic Dowd in neutral zone
  61. P3 04:42
    Stoppage - Offside
  62. P3 04:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Nic Dowd
  63. P3 04:22
    Power play - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
  64. P3 04:22
    Penalty to Aliaksei Protas 2 minutes for Misconduct
  65. P3 04:02
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
  66. P3 04:02
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun assisted by John Carlson and Nic Dowd
    0-3
  67. P3 03:00
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  68. P3 03:00
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  69. P3 02:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Dennis Hildeby
  70. P3 02:15
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  71. P3 02:15
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  72. P3 02:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Dennis Hildeby
  73. P3 02:07
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Nic Dowd in neutral zone
  74. P3 02:07
    Stoppage - Offside
  75. P3 01:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Carlson
  76. P3 01:08
    SHOT
    Martin Fehervary shot blocked by William Nylander
  77. P3 01:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
  78. P3 00:52
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  79. P3 00:52
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  80. P3 00:44
    Matthew Knies credited with hit on Jakob Chychrun in offensive zone
  81. P3 00:41
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Nicholas Robertson in defensive zone
  82. P3 00:41
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  83. P3 00:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Logan Thompson
  84. P3 00:38
    John Tavares won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
  85. P3 00:38
    Stoppage
  86. P3 00:26
    John Tavares won faceoff against Nic Dowd in neutral zone
  87. P3 00:26
    Stoppage - Offside
  88. P3 00:11
    Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Matt Roy in neutral zone
  89. P3 00:00
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  90. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  91. P2 19:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nic Dowd
  92. P2 19:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Dennis Hildeby
  93. P2 18:08
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Dylan Strome
  94. P2 17:56
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Dennis Hildeby
  95. P2 17:51
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Connor McMichael
  96. P2 17:48
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Dennis Hildeby
  97. P2 17:31
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Tom Wilson
  98. P2 17:27
    Shorthanded - Troy Stecher credited with hit on Tom Wilson in defensive zone
  99. P2 17:25
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Dennis Hildeby
  100. P2 17:05
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Jake McCabe in neutral zone
  101. P2 16:36
    SHOT
    Power play - Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Troy Stecher
  102. P2 16:19
    Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  103. P2 15:51
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Bobby McMann in offensive zone
  104. P2 15:51
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  105. P2 15:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
  106. P2 15:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Sonny Milano saved by Dennis Hildeby
  107. P2 14:28
    Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun in offensive zone
  108. P2 14:15
    Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun in defensive zone
  109. P2 14:08
    Steven Lorentz credited with hit on Aliaksei Protas in neutral zone
  110. P2 13:29
    Power play - Giveaway by Max Domi in offensive zone
  111. P2 13:09
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
  112. P2 13:05
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Nicolas Roy saved by Logan Thompson
  113. P2 13:04
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  114. P2 11:42
    Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  115. P2 11:42
    Penalty to Dylan Strome 2 minutes for Slashing
  116. P2 11:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
  117. P2 11:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Dennis Hildeby
  118. P2 10:41
    Nicholas Robertson credited with hit on Jakob Chychrun in neutral zone
  119. P2 10:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Dennis Hildeby
  120. P2 10:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Logan Thompson
  121. P2 09:54
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  122. P2 09:54
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  123. P2 09:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Logan Thompson
  124. P2 09:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Dennis Hildeby
  125. P2 08:40
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
  126. P2 08:40
    Stoppage - Icing
  127. P2 08:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Logan Thompson
  128. P2 07:24
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  129. P2 07:24
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  130. P2 07:24
    Stoppage - Icing
  131. P2 07:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Logan Thompson
  132. P2 06:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Logan Thompson
  133. P2 06:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Dennis Hildeby
  134. P2 06:14
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  135. P2 06:14
    Stoppage - Icing
  136. P2 05:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Dennis Hildeby
  137. P2 04:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  138. P2 04:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
  139. P2 04:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Beauvillier saved by Dennis Hildeby
  140. P2 04:14
    SHOT
    Simon Benoit shot blocked by Ethen Frank
  141. P2 04:11
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in offensive zone
  142. P2 04:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Henry Thrun saved by Logan Thompson
  143. P2 03:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Capitals
  144. P2 02:34
    Giveaway by Aliaksei Protas in neutral zone
  145. P2 02:00
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  146. P2 02:00
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  147. P2 01:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Dennis Hildeby
  148. P2 01:30
    SHOT
    Connor McMichael shot blocked by Henry Thrun
  149. P2 00:59
    Giveaway by John Tavares in offensive zone
  150. P2 00:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Logan Thompson
  151. P2 00:00
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  152. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  153. P1 19:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Duhaime
  154. P1 19:19
    Shorthanded - Anthony Beauvillier won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  155. P1 19:19
    Stoppage - Offside
  156. P1 18:13
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Dennis Hildeby
  157. P1 17:44
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
  158. P1 17:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Logan Thompson
  159. P1 17:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bobby McMann
  160. P1 16:16
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
  161. P1 16:16
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun
    0-2
  162. P1 16:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ethen Frank
  163. P1 15:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bogdan Trineyev saved by Dennis Hildeby
  164. P1 15:33
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Bogdan Trineyev
  165. P1 15:06
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  166. P1 15:06
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  167. P1 15:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Logan Thompson
  168. P1 14:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nicolas Roy
  169. P1 13:53
    Nic Dowd won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  170. P1 13:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Aliaksei Protas saved by Dennis Hildeby
  171. P1 13:49
    SHOT
    John Carlson shot blocked by teammate
  172. P1 13:38
    SHOT
    Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  173. P1 11:53
    Giveaway by Alex Ovechkin in neutral zone
  174. P1 11:51
    Scott Laughton credited with hit on Alex Ovechkin in neutral zone
  175. P1 11:43
    Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  176. P1 11:43
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  177. P1 11:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Dennis Hildeby
  178. P1 11:38
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  179. P1 11:38
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  180. P1 11:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Martin Fehervary saved by Dennis Hildeby
  181. P1 11:28
    SHOT
    William Nylander shot blocked by Matt Roy
  182. P1 11:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  183. P1 11:22
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Brandon Duhaime
  184. P1 10:35
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by William Nylander
  185. P1 10:05
    SHOT
    Power play - Max Domi shot blocked by Nic Dowd
  186. P1 09:55
    SHOT
    Power play - Max Domi shot blocked by teammate
  187. P1 09:48
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Logan Thompson
  188. P1 09:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
  189. P1 09:22
    Power play - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
  190. P1 09:22
    Penalty to Martin Fehervary 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by William Nylander)
  191. P1 08:48
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson credited with hit on Martin Fehervary in offensive zone
  192. P1 08:27
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bogdan Trineyev
  193. P1 08:17
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Logan Thompson
  194. P1 08:12
    Shorthanded - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Nic Dowd in defensive zone
  195. P1 08:12
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  196. P1 08:10
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Dennis Hildeby
  197. P1 08:04
    SHOT
    Power play - Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  198. P1 07:41
    Shorthanded - Simon Benoit credited with hit on Sonny Milano in defensive zone
  199. P1 07:07
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Scott Laughton in defensive zone
  200. P1 06:59
    SHOT
    Power play - Dylan Strome shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  201. P1 06:41
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Dennis Hildeby
  202. P1 06:32
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Tom Wilson
  203. P1 06:23
    Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  204. P1 05:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
  205. P1 05:02
    SHOT
    Power play - Dylan Strome shot blocked by teammate
  206. P1 04:30
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Dennis Hildeby
  207. P1 04:04
    Shorthanded - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  208. P1 04:04
    Penalty to Scott Laughton 2 minutes for Misconduct
  209. P1 04:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Sonny Milano
  210. P1 03:50
    SHOT
    Declan Chisholm shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  211. P1 03:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
  212. P1 02:53
    Takeaway by Nicholas Robertson in defensive zone
  213. P1 02:34
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Easton Cowan
  214. P1 02:31
    SHOT
    Power play - Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Martin Fehervary
  215. P1 01:32
    Shorthanded - Nic Dowd won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  216. P1 01:32
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  217. P1 01:30
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Logan Thompson
  218. P1 01:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  219. P1 00:45
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Nic Dowd in offensive zone
  220. P1 00:45
    Penalty to Aliaksei Protas 2 minutes for High Sticking (Drawn by Morgan Rielly)
  221. P1 00:37
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  222. P1 00:37
    Stoppage - Icing
  223. P1 00:22
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  224. P1 00:22
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  225. P1 00:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
  226. P1 00:00
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  227. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Capitals
22Shots on Goal29
54% Faceoff Win % 46%
5/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins10
27Hits13
13 Shots Blocked 12
16Giveaways18
Maple LeafsTOR
CapitalsWSH
22Shots on Goal29
54% Faceoff Win % 46%
5/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins10
27Hits13
13 Shots Blocked 12
16Giveaways18

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Capitals
  • Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Capital One Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Capitals favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +130, Capitals -150

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 44%
  • Capitals: 56%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 44%, while the Capitals have a win probability of 56%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Capitals are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Capital One Arena on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Capitals predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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