Islanders vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Islanders vs. Lightning NHL game on December 6, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Islanders
2
0
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Islanders
0 0 2 2
Lightning
0 0 0 0
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Islanders
    100%
  • Lightning
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Islanders
0 0 2 2
Lightning
0 0 0 0
P3 19:58 Goal scored by Casey Cizikas
P3 19:26 Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 19:16 Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P3 18:52 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 18:49 Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
P3 18:39 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 18:27 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 18:19 Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 18:04 Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P3 16:45 Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Adam Pelech
P3 16:09 Shot on goal by Marc Gatcomb saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 15:46 Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
P3 15:12 Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 15:08 Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 14:27 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
P3 14:21 Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P3 14:01 Shot on goal by Ryan Pulock saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 13:22 Victor Hedman shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
P3 13:19 Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Ilya Sorokin
P3 12:50 Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Ilya Sorokin
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:58
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in neutral zone
  3. P3 19:58
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Casey Cizikas
    2-0
  4. P3 19:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  5. P3 19:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  6. P3 18:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  7. P3 18:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  8. P3 18:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  9. P3 18:29
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Bo Horvat in offensive zone
  10. P3 18:29
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  11. P3 18:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ilya Sorokin
  12. P3 18:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  13. P3 18:07
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Bo Horvat in offensive zone
  14. P3 18:07
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  15. P3 18:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
  16. P3 17:46
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  17. P3 17:46
    Stoppage - Icing
  18. P3 16:45
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Adam Pelech
  19. P3 16:44
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  20. P3 16:44
    Stoppage - Icing
  21. P3 16:11
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in defensive zone
  22. P3 16:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  23. P3 16:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Marc Gatcomb saved by Jonas Johansson
  24. P3 15:46
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
  25. P3 15:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Ilya Sorokin
  26. P3 15:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Ilya Sorokin
  27. P3 14:48
    Emil Lilleberg credited with hit on Emil Heineman in defensive zone
  28. P3 14:34
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Bo Horvat in offensive zone
  29. P3 14:34
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  30. P3 14:27
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
  31. P3 14:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  32. P3 14:03
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
  33. P3 14:03
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  34. P3 14:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Pulock saved by Jonas Johansson
  35. P3 13:22
    SHOT
    Victor Hedman shot blocked by Marc Gatcomb
  36. P3 13:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Ilya Sorokin
  37. P3 12:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Ilya Sorokin
  38. P3 12:46
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Kyle MacLean in neutral zone
  39. P3 12:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Tony DeAngelo
  40. P3 12:29
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Simon Holmstrom saved by Jonas Johansson
  41. P3 12:15
    SHOT
    Power play - Tony DeAngelo shot blocked by teammate
  42. P3 10:57
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
  43. P3 10:40
    Power play - Giveaway by Bo Horvat in offensive zone
  44. P3 10:23
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Max Shabanov
  45. P3 10:14
    Power play - Bo Horvat won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  46. P3 10:14
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  47. P3 10:14
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Player Injury
  48. P3 09:37
    Calum Ritchie won faceoff against Jack Finley in offensive zone
  49. P3 09:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  50. P3 09:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Calum Ritchie saved by Jonas Johansson
  51. P3 09:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Duclair
  52. P3 09:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Calum Ritchie
  53. P3 08:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Paul
  54. P3 08:29
    SHOT
    Victor Hedman shot blocked by Max Shabanov
  55. P3 07:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Ilya Sorokin
  56. P3 07:08
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in offensive zone
  57. P3 07:08
    Stoppage - Icing
  58. P3 06:47
    SHOT
    Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
  59. P3 06:13
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
  60. P3 06:01
    SHOT
    Max Crozier shot blocked by Kyle MacLean
  61. P3 05:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Pulock
  62. P3 05:12
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
  63. P3 05:12
    Stoppage - Icing
  64. P3 04:46
    Dominic James won faceoff against Calum Ritchie in defensive zone
  65. P3 04:46
    Stoppage - Puck in Penalty Benches
  66. P3 04:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Adam Pelech saved by Jonas Johansson
  67. P3 04:10
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  68. P3 04:10
    Stoppage - Icing
  69. P3 03:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Curtis Douglas saved by Ilya Sorokin
  70. P3 02:43
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Jack Finley in defensive zone
  71. P3 02:43
    Stoppage - Icing
  72. P3 02:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Ilya Sorokin
  73. P3 01:37
    Calum Ritchie won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
  74. P3 01:37
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  75. P3 01:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Adam Boqvist saved by Jonas Johansson
  76. P3 00:31
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
  77. P3 00:21
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
  78. P3 00:00
    Mathew Barzal won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  79. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  80. P2 19:38
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in neutral zone
  81. P2 19:38
    Stoppage - Offside
  82. P2 19:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Ilya Sorokin
  83. P2 17:10
    SHOT
    Max Shabanov shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  84. P2 16:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Schaefer
  85. P2 16:17
    Giveaway by J.J. Moser in defensive zone
  86. P2 15:42
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in defensive zone
  87. P2 15:42
    Stoppage - Skater Puck Frozen
  88. P2 15:09
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Bo Horvat in neutral zone
  89. P2 15:09
    Stoppage - Net Dislodged Defensive Skater - TV timeout
  90. P2 15:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Finley saved by Ilya Sorokin
  91. P2 14:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Mayfield saved by Jonas Johansson
  92. P2 13:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ilya Sorokin
  93. P2 13:13
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Tony DeAngelo
  94. P2 13:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ilya Sorokin
  95. P2 13:07
    Power play - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in offensive zone
  96. P2 13:07
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  97. P2 13:05
    SHOT
    Power play - Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Casey Cizikas
  98. P2 12:55
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  99. P2 11:46
    Shorthanded - Kyle MacLean won faceoff against Jack Finley in defensive zone
  100. P2 11:46
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  101. P2 11:19
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  102. P2 11:07
    Power play - Nick Paul won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in offensive zone
  103. P2 11:07
    Penalty to Bo Horvat 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Anthony Cirelli)
  104. P2 11:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ilya Sorokin
  105. P2 09:35
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Duclair saved by Jonas Johansson
  106. P2 08:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Scott Mayfield
  107. P2 07:45
    Power play - Giveaway by Jack Finley in offensive zone
  108. P2 07:21
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Ilya Sorokin
  109. P2 07:20
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Ilya Sorokin
  110. P2 07:18
    SHOT
    Power play - Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
  111. P2 06:48
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  112. P2 06:40
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Ilya Sorokin
  113. P2 06:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Casey Cizikas
  114. P2 05:58
    Shorthanded - Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  115. P2 05:58
    Penalty to Anders Lee 2 minutes for Misconduct
  116. P2 05:27
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
  117. P2 05:21
    Power play - Giveaway by Matthew Schaefer in offensive zone
  118. P2 05:18
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Mathew Barzal
  119. P2 04:13
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Ilya Sorokin
  120. P2 03:49
    SHOT
    Power play - Max Shabanov shot blocked by teammate
  121. P2 03:31
    Power play - Bo Horvat won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  122. P2 03:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Marc Gatcomb saved by Jonas Johansson
  123. P2 03:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Schaefer saved by Jonas Johansson
  124. P2 02:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Schaefer saved by Jonas Johansson
  125. P2 02:43
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  126. P2 02:43
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  127. P2 02:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Ilya Sorokin
  128. P2 01:22
    SHOT
    Emil Lilleberg shot blocked by Emil Heineman
  129. P2 01:19
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Bo Horvat in offensive zone
  130. P2 01:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Ilya Sorokin
  131. P2 01:06
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  132. P2 01:06
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  133. P2 01:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Shabanov saved by Jonas Johansson
  134. P2 00:31
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
  135. P2 00:12
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Mathew Barzal
  136. P2 00:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
  137. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  138. P1 19:47
    Anders Lee won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  139. P1 19:47
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  140. P1 19:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Maxim Tsyplakov saved by Jonas Johansson
  141. P1 19:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Maxim Tsyplakov saved by Jonas Johansson
  142. P1 19:14
    SHOT
    Emil Lilleberg shot blocked by Emil Heineman
  143. P1 18:37
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Adam Pelech
  144. P1 18:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  145. P1 18:29
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  146. P1 18:29
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  147. P1 18:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Ilya Sorokin
  148. P1 18:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  149. P1 17:24
    Jack Finley credited with hit on Kyle MacLean in defensive zone
  150. P1 17:07
    Casey Cizikas won faceoff against Jack Finley in defensive zone
  151. P1 17:07
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  152. P1 17:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Ilya Sorokin
  153. P1 16:46
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  154. P1 16:46
    Stoppage - Icing
  155. P1 16:22
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Bo Horvat in neutral zone
  156. P1 16:22
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  157. P1 15:56
    SHOT
    Matthew Schaefer shot blocked by teammate
  158. P1 15:36
    SHOT
    Anthony Duclair shot blocked by Nick Paul
  159. P1 15:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Ilya Sorokin
  160. P1 15:08
    SHOT
    Dominic James shot blocked by Anthony Duclair
  161. P1 15:04
    SHOT
    Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by teammate
  162. P1 15:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Ilya Sorokin
  163. P1 13:02
    Giveaway by Emil Lilleberg in defensive zone
  164. P1 11:41
    Dominic James credited with hit on Matthew Schaefer in neutral zone
  165. P1 11:02
    Calum Ritchie won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
  166. P1 11:02
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  167. P1 10:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Ilya Sorokin
  168. P1 09:24
    Matthew Schaefer credited with hit on Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
  169. P1 08:58
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Maxim Tsyplakov in defensive zone
  170. P1 08:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Schaefer saved by Jonas Johansson
  171. P1 08:54
    Maxim Tsyplakov won faceoff against Jack Finley in offensive zone
  172. P1 08:54
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  173. P1 08:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Maxim Tsyplakov
  174. P1 08:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Curtis Douglas saved by Ilya Sorokin
  175. P1 07:33
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  176. P1 07:33
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  177. P1 07:16
    Bo Horvat won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  178. P1 07:16
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  179. P1 07:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Ilya Sorokin
  180. P1 06:46
    SHOT
    Simon Holmstrom shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  181. P1 06:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Schaefer
  182. P1 06:02
    SHOT
    Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Adam Boqvist
  183. P1 05:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Ilya Sorokin
  184. P1 05:21
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  185. P1 04:39
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Bo Horvat in offensive zone
  186. P1 04:39
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  187. P1 04:37
    SHOT
    Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Scott Mayfield
  188. P1 03:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Pulock
  189. P1 03:23
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Anders Lee in defensive zone
  190. P1 03:23
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  191. P1 02:59
    Jack Finley won faceoff against Casey Cizikas in defensive zone
  192. P1 02:59
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  193. P1 02:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dominic James saved by Ilya Sorokin
  194. P1 02:00
    Calum Ritchie won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  195. P1 02:00
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  196. P1 01:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  197. P1 01:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Ilya Sorokin
  198. P1 01:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Schaefer saved by Jonas Johansson
  199. P1 01:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bo Horvat
  200. P1 00:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  201. P1 00:30
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in offensive zone
  202. P1 00:29
    Stoppage - Icing
  203. P1 00:00
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mathew Barzal in neutral zone
  204. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Islanders
STATS
Lightning
19Shots on Goal32
43% Faceoff Win % 57%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins6
22Hits21
22 Shots Blocked 10
16Giveaways10
IslandersNYI
LightningTB
19Shots on Goal32
43% Faceoff Win % 57%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins6
22Hits21
22 Shots Blocked 10
16Giveaways10

Islanders vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Islanders vs. Lightning
  • Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Islanders +122, Lightning -140

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Islanders: 41%
  • Lightning: 59%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Islanders a win probability of 41%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 59%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Islanders in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Islanders vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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