Lightning vs. Capitals Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Capitals NHL game on November 22, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
Don't guess. Join Dimers Pro to unlock the bets worth making.
FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Lightning
5
3
Capital One Arena
Capitals
Capital One Arena
TEAM123T
Lightning
4 0 1 5
Capitals
1 1 1 3
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    100%
  • Capitals
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
4 0 1 5
Capitals
1 1 1 3
P3 19:55 Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P3 19:43 Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P3 18:45 Shot on goal by Capitals saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 18:07 Shot missed by Lightning
P3 17:15 Nick Paul shot blocked by John Carlson
P3 16:32 Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 16:22 Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 15:51 Goal scored by Anthony Cirelli assisted by Brandon Hagel
P3 15:48 Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
P3 15:47 Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P3 15:19 Shot on goal by Justin Sourdif saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 14:53 J.J. Moser shot blocked by John Carlson
P3 14:36 Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 12:03 Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Charlie Lindgren
P3 11:04 Shot missed by Dylan Strome
P3 10:24 Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Charlie Lindgren
P3 10:08 Power play - Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P3 09:20 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Jonas Johansson
P3 08:48 Shot missed by Dominic James
P3 08:47 Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by teammate
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  3. P3 19:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  4. P3 19:43
    SHOT
    Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  5. P3 19:30
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  6. P3 19:30
    Stoppage - Offside
  7. P3 18:46
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  8. P3 18:46
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  9. P3 18:45
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Capitals saved by Jonas Johansson
  10. P3 18:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lightning
  11. P3 18:04
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  12. P3 18:04
    Stoppage - Icing
  13. P3 17:15
    SHOT
    Nick Paul shot blocked by John Carlson
  14. P3 16:56
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  15. P3 16:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Sandin saved by Jonas Johansson
  16. P3 16:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Jonas Johansson
  17. P3 15:51
    Dominic James won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in neutral zone
  18. P3 15:51
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Anthony Cirelli assisted by Brandon Hagel
    5-3
  19. P3 15:48
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun
  20. P3 15:47
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  21. P3 15:20
    Aliaksei Protas won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  22. P3 15:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Justin Sourdif saved by Jonas Johansson
  23. P3 15:04
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  24. P3 15:04
    Stoppage - Hand Pass
  25. P3 14:56
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  26. P3 14:53
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by John Carlson
  27. P3 14:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  28. P3 14:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Jonas Johansson
  29. P3 12:51
    Emil Lilleberg credited with hit on Anthony Beauvillier in defensive zone
  30. P3 12:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Charlie Lindgren
  31. P3 11:58
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  32. P3 11:58
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  33. P3 11:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Strome
  34. P3 10:24
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Charlie Lindgren
  35. P3 10:08
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  36. P3 09:20
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Matt Roy saved by Jonas Johansson
  37. P3 08:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dominic James
  38. P3 08:47
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by teammate
  39. P3 08:25
    Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  40. P3 08:07
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Jonas Johansson
  41. P3 07:53
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
  42. P3 07:48
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Tom Wilson
  43. P3 07:25
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
  44. P3 07:24
    Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
  45. P3 07:24
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  46. P3 07:22
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jakob Chychrun saved by Jonas Johansson
  47. P3 07:17
    Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in offensive zone
  48. P3 07:11
    Penalty to Emil Lilleberg 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Tom Wilson)
  49. P3 07:04
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Tom Wilson
  50. P3 06:30
    Power play - Dylan Strome won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
  51. P3 06:30
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  52. P3 06:30
    Penalty to Anthony Cirelli 2 minutes for Tripping
  53. P3 06:28
    SHOT
    Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  54. P3 06:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Jonas Johansson
  55. P3 05:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Jonas Johansson
  56. P3 05:24
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
  57. P3 05:24
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Ethen Frank assisted by Sonny Milano and Jakob Chychrun
    4-3
  58. P3 04:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Jonas Johansson
  59. P3 04:21
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  60. P3 04:21
    Stoppage - Icing
  61. P3 04:05
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  62. P3 03:40
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in defensive zone
  63. P3 03:40
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  64. P3 03:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Jonas Johansson
  65. P3 03:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Jonas Johansson
  66. P3 03:21
    Alex Ovechkin credited with hit on J.J. Moser in neutral zone
  67. P3 02:58
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
  68. P3 02:58
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  69. P3 02:55
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Charlie Lindgren
  70. P3 01:27
    Shorthanded - Connor McMichael won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  71. P3 01:27
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  72. P3 01:25
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Charlie Lindgren
  73. P3 00:58
    Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Connor McMichael in offensive zone
  74. P3 00:00
    Shorthanded - Brandon Hagel won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  75. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  76. P2 18:25
    Penalty to Curtis Douglas 10 minutes for Misconduct
  77. P2 18:25
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  78. P2 18:05
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  79. P2 17:41
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
  80. P2 17:41
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  81. P2 17:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  82. P2 17:13
    Anthony Beauvillier won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  83. P2 17:13
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  84. P2 17:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
  85. P2 17:00
    Tom Wilson credited with hit on Oliver Bjorkstrand in neutral zone
  86. P2 16:17
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Charlie Lindgren
  87. P2 16:15
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  88. P2 16:12
    SHOT
    Declan Carlile shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
  89. P2 16:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lightning
  90. P2 16:02
    SHOT
    Dylan Strome shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  91. P2 15:53
    SHOT
    Dylan Strome shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  92. P2 15:33
    SHOT
    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  93. P2 15:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dominic James saved by Charlie Lindgren
  94. P2 15:20
    SHOT
    Aliaksei Protas shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  95. P2 15:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
  96. P2 14:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Hendrix Lapierre
  97. P2 14:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jonas Johansson
  98. P2 14:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Hendrix Lapierre saved by Jonas Johansson
  99. P2 14:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jonas Johansson
  100. P2 13:14
    SHOT
    Anthony Beauvillier shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
  101. P2 13:07
    SHOT
    Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  102. P2 12:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tom Wilson saved by Jonas Johansson
  103. P2 11:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Duhaime saved by Jonas Johansson
  104. P2 10:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
  105. P2 10:25
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
  106. P2 10:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  107. P2 10:06
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  108. P2 10:06
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  109. P2 10:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Jonas Johansson
  110. P2 09:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Charlie Lindgren
  111. P2 08:25
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Justin Sourdif
  112. P2 08:18
    SHOT
    Brayden Point shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
  113. P2 08:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Carlson saved by Jonas Johansson
  114. P2 07:43
    SHOT
    Martin Fehervary shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  115. P2 07:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Trevor van Riemsdyk
  116. P2 06:02
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  117. P2 06:00
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  118. P2 06:00
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  119. P2 06:00
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  120. P2 05:51
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
  121. P2 05:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  122. P2 05:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Charlie Lindgren
  123. P2 05:26
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
  124. P2 05:26
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jakob Chychrun
    4-2
  125. P2 05:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Anthony Beauvillier
  126. P2 05:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
  127. P2 04:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Carlson
  128. P2 04:11
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Sonny Milano in defensive zone
  129. P2 04:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  130. P2 04:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Justin Sourdif saved by Jonas Johansson
  131. P2 03:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lightning
  132. P2 03:21
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
  133. P2 03:21
    Stoppage - Icing
  134. P2 02:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
  135. P2 02:04
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Ovechkin saved by Jonas Johansson
  136. P2 01:12
    Shorthanded - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  137. P2 01:12
    Penalty to Brandon Hagel 2 minutes for Misconduct
  138. P2 00:20
    Alex Ovechkin credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in defensive zone
  139. P2 00:08
    SHOT
    Anthony Beauvillier shot blocked by Brayden Point
  140. P2 00:06
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Dylan Strome in offensive zone
  141. P2 00:06
    Stoppage - Icing
  142. P2 00:00
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  143. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  144. P1 19:56
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan Leonard
  145. P1 19:43
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  146. P1 19:43
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  147. P1 19:30
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Connor McMichael in defensive zone
  148. P1 19:30
    Stoppage - Icing
  149. P1 19:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Jonas Johansson
  150. P1 18:19
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in neutral zone
  151. P1 18:19
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov
    4-1
  152. P1 18:11
    SHOT
    Trevor van Riemsdyk shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  153. P1 18:02
    SHOT
    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  154. P1 17:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Ovechkin
  155. P1 16:56
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Matt Roy
  156. P1 16:55
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in offensive zone
  157. P1 16:55
    Stoppage - Icing
  158. P1 15:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Connor McMichael saved by Jonas Johansson
  159. P1 15:14
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  160. P1 15:11
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Trevor van Riemsdyk
  161. P1 14:56
    SHOT
    Ethen Frank shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  162. P1 14:35
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Hendrix Lapierre in neutral zone
  163. P1 14:35
    Stoppage - Offside
  164. P1 14:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
  165. P1 14:11
    SHOT
    Matt Roy shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
  166. P1 14:08
    Dylan Strome won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  167. P1 14:08
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  168. P1 14:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Leonard saved by Jonas Johansson
  169. P1 11:36
    Brandon Hagel won faceoff against Justin Sourdif in neutral zone
  170. P1 11:36
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brandon Hagel
    3-1
  171. P1 10:25
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  172. P1 10:25
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  173. P1 10:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Paul saved by Logan Thompson
  174. P1 09:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  175. P1 08:53
    SHOT
    Power play - Ryan Leonard shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  176. P1 08:12
    Power play - Connor McMichael won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  177. P1 08:12
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  178. P1 07:06
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  179. P1 06:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jakob Chychrun
  180. P1 05:21
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Connor McMichael in neutral zone
  181. P1 05:21
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Oliver Bjorkstrand assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Darren Raddysh
    2-1
  182. P1 05:17
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Logan Thompson
  183. P1 05:08
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  184. P1 04:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
  185. P1 04:28
    SHOT
    Justin Sourdif shot blocked by Declan Carlile
  186. P1 03:29
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Rasmus Sandin
  187. P1 03:25
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Dylan Strome in offensive zone
  188. P1 03:25
    Penalty to Ethen Frank 2 minutes for Misconduct
  189. P1 02:53
    Power play - Connor McMichael won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
  190. P1 02:53
    GOAL
    Shorthanded - Goal scored by Brandon Hagel
    1-1
  191. P1 02:39
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  192. P1 02:35
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in defensive zone
  193. P1 02:35
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  194. P1 02:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ethen Frank saved by Jonas Johansson
  195. P1 02:24
    SHOT
    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  196. P1 02:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Sonny Milano
  197. P1 01:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  198. P1 01:06
    Connor McMichael won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  199. P1 01:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Justin Sourdif
  200. P1 01:03
    SHOT
    Tom Wilson shot blocked by teammate
  201. P1 00:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Aliaksei Protas
  202. P1 00:56
    Justin Sourdif won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  203. P1 00:56
    Stoppage - Icing
  204. P1 00:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Strome saved by Jonas Johansson
  205. P1 00:00
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Strome in neutral zone
  206. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Capitals
16Shots on Goal32
54% Faceoff Win % 46%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 6/0
27Penalty Infraction Mins11
15Hits22
23 Shots Blocked 13
19Giveaways18
LightningTB
CapitalsWSH
16Shots on Goal32
54% Faceoff Win % 46%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 6/0
27Penalty Infraction Mins11
15Hits22
23 Shots Blocked 13
19Giveaways18

Lightning vs. Capitals: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Capitals
  • Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Capital One Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Capitals favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning +105, Capitals -120

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 49%
  • Capitals: 51%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 49%, while the Capitals have a win probability of 51%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Capitals are more likely to beat the Lightning in the NHL game at Capital One Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Capitals predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.