Senators vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Senators vs. Lightning NHL game on March 28, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Senators
2
4
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Senators
2 0 0 2
Lightning
0 2 2 4
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Senators
    0%
  • Lightning
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Senators
2 0 0 2
Lightning
0 2 2 4
P3 19:00 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 18:12 Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:12 Shot on goal by Lightning saved by James Reimer
P3 17:48 Goal scored by Jake Guentzel assisted by Corey Perry and Emil Lilleberg
P3 16:42 Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by James Reimer
P3 15:58 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:29 Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:29 Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 14:21 Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 13:13 Shot missed by Lassi Thomson
P3 13:05 Lassi Thomson shot blocked by teammate
P3 12:20 Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 12:09 Brayden Point shot blocked by Carter Yakemchuk
P3 12:04 Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P3 10:16 Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 09:42 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
P3 08:07 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 07:50 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by James Reimer
P3 07:50 Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P3 07:06 Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:00
    Dylan Cozens credited with hit on Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
  3. P3 19:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  4. P3 18:24
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  5. P3 18:14
    Brandon Hagel won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  6. P3 18:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  7. P3 18:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lightning saved by James Reimer
  8. P3 17:48
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  9. P3 17:48
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Jake Guentzel assisted by Corey Perry and Emil Lilleberg
    2-4
  10. P3 16:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by James Reimer
  11. P3 16:32
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
  12. P3 16:32
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  13. P3 15:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  14. P3 14:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  15. P3 14:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  16. P3 14:24
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  17. P3 14:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  18. P3 14:12
    Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  19. P3 13:33
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  20. P3 13:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Lassi Thomson
  21. P3 13:05
    SHOT
    Lassi Thomson shot blocked by teammate
  22. P3 12:20
    SHOT
    Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  23. P3 12:09
    SHOT
    Brayden Point shot blocked by Carter Yakemchuk
  24. P3 12:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  25. P3 11:18
    Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  26. P3 11:18
    Stoppage - Icing
  27. P3 10:56
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  28. P3 10:56
    Stoppage - Icing
  29. P3 10:19
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
  30. P3 10:19
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  31. P3 10:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  32. P3 09:45
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
  33. P3 09:42
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
  34. P3 09:25
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
  35. P3 08:51
    Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  36. P3 08:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  37. P3 07:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by James Reimer
  38. P3 07:50
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
  39. P3 07:36
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  40. P3 07:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  41. P3 06:15
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  42. P3 05:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Artem Zub
  43. P3 04:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tyler Kleven saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  44. P3 04:28
    SHOT
    Jordan Spence shot blocked by teammate
  45. P3 03:53
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
  46. P3 03:53
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  47. P3 03:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by James Reimer
  48. P3 02:19
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo
  49. P3 02:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McDonagh saved by James Reimer
  50. P3 01:42
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  51. P3 01:02
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
  52. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  53. P2 19:55
    SHOT
    Power play - J.J. Moser shot blocked by Shane Pinto
  54. P2 19:23
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  55. P2 19:23
    Penalty to Brady Tkachuk 2 minutes for Misconduct
  56. P2 18:36
    Power play - Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  57. P2 17:52
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  58. P2 17:52
    Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Interference
  59. P2 17:16
    SHOT
    Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo
  60. P2 16:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  61. P2 16:04
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  62. P2 16:04
    Stoppage - Offside
  63. P2 15:17
    Lars Eller won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  64. P2 14:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by James Reimer
  65. P2 13:55
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  66. P2 13:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by James Reimer
  67. P2 13:29
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by James Reimer
  68. P2 13:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Drake Batherson
  69. P2 12:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  70. P2 12:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by James Reimer
  71. P2 12:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ridly Greig
  72. P2 11:38
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Brady Tkachuk
  73. P2 11:30
    SHOT
    Scott Sabourin shot blocked by Artem Zub
  74. P2 11:23
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Ridly Greig
  75. P2 11:15
    Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  76. P2 11:15
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  77. P2 11:01
    Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  78. P2 10:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by James Reimer
  79. P2 10:38
    Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  80. P2 10:38
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  81. P2 10:21
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  82. P2 09:56
    SHOT
    Power play - Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Lassi Thomson
  83. P2 09:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by James Reimer
  84. P2 08:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  85. P2 08:09
    Penalty to Dylan Cozens 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Brandon Hagel)
  86. P2 08:09
    Penalty to Carter Yakemchuk 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Erik Cernak)
  87. P2 08:09
    Senators won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
  88. P2 08:01
    SHOT
    Power play - Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
  89. P2 07:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Drake Batherson
  90. P2 07:28
    Nick Cousins won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  91. P2 07:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brayden Point
  92. P2 06:43
    Jake Guentzel credited with hit on Nick Cousins in neutral zone
  93. P2 06:38
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  94. P2 06:02
    Ridly Greig won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
  95. P2 06:02
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  96. P2 05:39
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
  97. P2 05:39
    Stoppage - Icing
  98. P2 05:14
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
  99. P2 05:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  100. P2 03:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Corey Perry
  101. P2 03:37
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  102. P2 03:37
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Charle-Edouard D'Astous and Emil Lilleberg
    2-1
  103. P2 03:35
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Artem Zub
  104. P2 02:58
    Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  105. P2 01:05
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Tyler Kleven in offensive zone
  106. P2 00:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by James Reimer
  107. P2 00:00
    Power play - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
  108. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  109. P1 19:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by James Reimer
  110. P1 18:54
    Power play - Brandon Hagel credited with hit on Michael Amadio in defensive zone
  111. P1 18:14
    Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  112. P1 17:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Cousins saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  113. P1 17:31
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  114. P1 17:31
    Stoppage - Icing
  115. P1 17:25
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  116. P1 16:16
    SHOT
    Artem Zub shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
  117. P1 15:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by James Reimer
  118. P1 15:57
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  119. P1 15:39
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  120. P1 15:39
    Stoppage
  121. P1 15:19
    Senators won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
  122. P1 14:57
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Shane Pinto
  123. P1 14:56
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  124. P1 14:22
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  125. P1 14:22
    Stoppage
  126. P1 13:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  127. P1 12:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  128. P1 12:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by James Reimer
  129. P1 12:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by J.J. Moser
  130. P1 12:19
    Senators won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  131. P1 12:19
    Stoppage
  132. P1 11:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  133. P1 10:48
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  134. P1 10:47
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brayden Point
  135. P1 09:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  136. P1 09:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by James Reimer
  137. P1 09:09
    Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
  138. P1 08:44
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Artem Zub
  139. P1 08:08
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  140. P1 08:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by James Reimer
  141. P1 08:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by James Reimer
  142. P1 06:25
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Tyler Kleven
  143. P1 05:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tyler Kleven
  144. P1 05:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  145. P1 04:25
    Lars Eller won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  146. P1 04:22
    SHOT
    Nick Cousins shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  147. P1 04:20
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  148. P1 03:15
    Tim Stutzle credited with hit on J.J. Moser in defensive zone
  149. P1 03:12
    Drake Batherson credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
  150. P1 02:14
    Stoppage - Icing
  151. P1 01:50
    Scott Sabourin credited with hit on Lassi Thomson in offensive zone
  152. P1 01:33
    Lars Eller won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  153. P1 01:33
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  154. P1 00:29
    Drake Batherson credited with hit on J.J. Moser in defensive zone
  155. P1 00:29
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Claude Giroux
  156. P1 00:05
    Brady Tkachuk credited with hit on Erik Cernak in neutral zone
  157. P1 00:00
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
Stats
Senators
STATS
Lightning
28Shots on Goal27
55% Faceoff Win % 45%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/0
10Penalty Infraction Mins6
23Hits21
25 Shots Blocked 12
18Giveaways15
SenatorsOTT
LightningTB
28Shots on Goal27
55% Faceoff Win % 45%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/0
10Penalty Infraction Mins6
23Hits21
25 Shots Blocked 12
18Giveaways15

Senators vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Senators vs. Lightning
  • Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
  • Time: 1:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Senators 44¢, Lightning 56¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Senators: 43%
  • Lightning: 57%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Senators a win probability of 43%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 57%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Senators in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Senators vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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