Lightning vs. Rangers prediction favors Tampa Bay to win Thursday's NHL matchup [10/1/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Rangers, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Lightning a 55.5% chance of defeating the Rangers. According to our model, the Rangers (+1.5) have a 66.7% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 54.4% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+180) / Rangers +1.5 (-200)
• Moneyline: Lightning -143, Rangers +125
• Total: Over/Under 5.5 (-120/+108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Rangers +1.5 @ -200 via ESPN BET
• Moneyline: Rangers @ +125 via bet365
• Total: Over 5.5 @ -120 via BetMGM

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Rangers to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Lightning vs. Rangers player props

Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Rangers?

According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Rangers.

Our projections give Kucherov a 40.8% chance of scoring a goal at Madison Square Garden, while the star is a 7.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 40.8% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 35.3% probability
• Jake Guentzel: 33.7% probability
• Brayden Point: 29.1% probability
• Anthony Cirelli: 25.3% probability

NY Rangers

• Pavel Dorofeyev: 34.4% probability
• Mika Zibanejad: 30.8% probability
• J.T. Miller: 24.6% probability
• Alexis Lafreniere: 24.2% probability
• Will Cuylle: 20.5% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 7.8% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 7.3% probability
• Jake Guentzel: 6.5% probability
• Brayden Point: 5.7% probability
• Anthony Cirelli: 4.3% probability

NY Rangers

• Pavel Dorofeyev: 6.8% probability
• Mika Zibanejad: 5.7% probability
• Alexis Lafreniere: 4.9% probability
• J.T. Miller: 4.2% probability
• Gabe Perreault: 4.1% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Thursday's action between the Rangers and Lightning at Madison Square Garden is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. NY Rangers
• Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Madison Square Garden

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 55.5% win probability, will likely beat the Rangers in Thursday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.