Kraken vs. Capitals prediction: Why Washington is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [10/11/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Kraken and Capitals, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Capitals a 62.7% chance of defeating the Kraken. According to our model, the Kraken (+1.5) have a 59.7% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54.6% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Kraken +1.5 (-135) / Capitals -1.5 (+121)
• Moneyline: Kraken +185, Capitals -209
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-117)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Kraken +1.5 @ -135 via BetMGM
• Moneyline: Kraken @ +185 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -117 via BetRivers

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Kraken +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Kraken vs. Capitals player props

Who will score a goal in Kraken vs. Capitals?

According to our model, Alex Tuch is most likely to score an anytime goal in Kraken vs. Capitals.

Our projections give Tuch a 32.5% chance of scoring a goal at Capital One Arena, while the star is a 6.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Seattle Kraken

• Bobby McMann: 29.2% probability
• Jared McCann: 25.0% probability
• Jordan Eberle: 22.6% probability
• Shane Wright: 17.2% probability
• Matty Beniers: 17.1% probability

Washington Capitals

• Alex Tuch: 32.5% probability
• Tom Wilson: 32.4% probability
• Alex Ovechkin: 28.5% probability
• Jakob Chychrun: 27.0% probability
• Aliaksei Protas: 25.3% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Seattle Kraken

• Bobby McMann: 5.3% probability
• Jared McCann: 4.5% probability
• Jordan Eberle: 4.4% probability
• Matty Beniers: 3.1% probability
• Mackie Samoskevich: 2.9% probability

Washington Capitals

• Tom Wilson: 6.5% probability
• Alex Tuch: 6.0% probability
• Jakob Chychrun: 4.9% probability
• Alex Ovechkin: 4.8% probability
• Aliaksei Protas: 4.6% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Sunday's matchup between the Capitals and Kraken at Capital One Arena is scheduled to start at 5:00 PM ET.

• Who: Seattle Kraken vs. Washington Capitals
• Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
• Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
• Venue: Capital One Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Capitals, with a 62.7% win probability, will likely beat the Kraken in Sunday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.