Penguins vs. Flyers prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [9/30/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NHL game between the Penguins and Flyers, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Flyers a 54.1% chance of beating the Penguins. According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 68.1% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 56.4% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Penguins +1.5 (-208) / Flyers -1.5 (+180)
• Moneyline: Penguins +124, Flyers -140
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+116/-130)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Penguins +1.5 @ -208 via ESPN BET
• Moneyline: Penguins @ +124 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -130 via bet365

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Penguins to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Penguins vs. Flyers player props

Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Flyers?

According to our model, Sidney Crosby is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Flyers.

Our projections give Crosby a 34.6% chance of scoring a goal at Xfinity Mobile Arena, while the star is a 6.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 34.6% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 34.1% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 30.4% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 28.6% probability
• Thomas Novak: 22.9% probability

Philadelphia Flyers

• Porter Martone: 28.9% probability
• Tyson Foerster: 27.7% probability
• Owen Tippett: 27.4% probability
• Travis Konecny: 26.8% probability
• Trevor Zegras: 24.7% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Rickard Rakell: 7.0% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 6.5% probability
• Sidney Crosby: 6.5% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 5.3% probability
• Nicholas Robertson: 4.0% probability

Philadelphia Flyers

• Tyson Foerster: 5.7% probability
• Owen Tippett: 5.4% probability
• Porter Martone: 5.2% probability
• Travis Konecny: 4.8% probability
• Trevor Zegras: 4.5% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Wednesday's matchup between the Flyers and Penguins at Xfinity Mobile Arena is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers
• Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Flyers, with a 54.1% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins in Wednesday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.