Flyers vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [10/5/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Monday's NHL matchup between the Flyers and Lightning, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lightning a 63.8% chance of defeating the Flyers. According to our model, the Flyers (+1.5) have a 58.7% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 51.6% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Flyers +1.5 (-135) / Lightning -1.5 (+120)
• Moneyline: Flyers +185, Lightning -208
• Total: Over/Under 5.5 (-122/+110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Flyers +1.5 @ -135 via bet365
• Moneyline: Flyers @ +185 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 5.5 @ +110 via bet365

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Flyers +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Flyers vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Flyers vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Flyers vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Kucherov a 42.5% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.7% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Philadelphia Flyers

• Tyson Foerster: 26.9% probability
• Trevor Zegras: 23.4% probability
• Owen Tippett: 23.2% probability
• Porter Martone: 20.8% probability
• Travis Konecny: 20.4% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 42.5% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 36.7% probability
• Jake Guentzel: 36.2% probability
• Brayden Point: 32.6% probability
• Anthony Cirelli: 26.3% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Philadelphia Flyers

• Tyson Foerster: 5.4% probability
• Trevor Zegras: 4.8% probability
• Porter Martone: 4.4% probability
• Owen Tippett: 4.3% probability
• Travis Konecny: 4.0% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 8.7% probability
• Brandon Hagel: 7.9% probability
• Jake Guentzel: 7.3% probability
• Brayden Point: 6.6% probability
• Anthony Cirelli: 5.2% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Monday's matchup between the Lightning and Flyers at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Monday, October 5, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 63.8% win probability, will likely beat the Flyers in Monday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.