Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Ottawa is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [10/3/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Senators and Maple Leafs, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Senators a 50.9% chance of beating the Maple Leafs. According to our model, the Senators (+1.5) have a 71.8% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54.8% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Senators +1.5 (-235) / Maple Leafs -1.5 (+215)
• Moneyline: Senators +105, Maple Leafs -115
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-125)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Senators +1.5 @ -235 via BetMGM
• Moneyline: Senators @ +105 via bet365
• Total: Under 6.5 @ -125 via bet365

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Senators to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Senators vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Senators vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 37.0% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 7.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Ottawa Senators

• Drake Batherson: 34.3% probability
• Tim Stutzle: 33.1% probability
• Dylan Cozens: 27.9% probability
• Shane Pinto: 26.0% probability
• Warren Foegele: 24.1% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 37.0% probability
• William Nylander: 33.9% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 26.8% probability
• John Tavares: 26.1% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 22.8% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Ottawa Senators

• Drake Batherson: 7.2% probability
• Tim Stutzle: 6.6% probability
• Shane Pinto: 5.0% probability
• Dylan Cozens: 4.8% probability
• Warren Foegele: 4.5% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 7.2% probability
• William Nylander: 6.1% probability
• John Tavares: 4.9% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 4.5% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 4.2% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Saturday's matchup between the Maple Leafs and Senators at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Senators, with a 50.9% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs in Saturday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.