Sabres vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Buffalo is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [10/15/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Sabres and Maple Leafs, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Sabres a 50.8% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs. According to our model, the Sabres (+1.5) have a 70.9% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 50.1% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Sabres +1.5 (-223) / Maple Leafs -1.5 (+217)
• Moneyline: Sabres +108, Maple Leafs -111
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-117/+115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Sabres +1.5 @ 69¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Sabres @ 48¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 6.5 @ 46¢ via Novig

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Sabres vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Sabres vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Tage Thompson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Sabres vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Thompson a 45.6% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 9.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Buffalo Sabres

• Tage Thompson: 45.6% probability
• Jack Quinn: 29.0% probability
• Josh Doan: 28.5% probability
• Noah Ostlund: 22.2% probability
• Josh Norris: 21.9% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 36.7% probability
• William Nylander: 35.4% probability
• John Tavares: 26.9% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 25.0% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 23.4% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Buffalo Sabres

• Tage Thompson: 9.8% probability
• Josh Doan: 5.1% probability
• Jack Quinn: 4.8% probability
• Noah Ostlund: 4.0% probability
• Zach Benson: 3.9% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 6.9% probability
• William Nylander: 6.5% probability
• John Tavares: 5.1% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 4.4% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 3.8% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Thursday's action between the Maple Leafs and Sabres at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Thursday, October 15, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Sabres, with a 50.8% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs in Thursday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.