NFL Week 4 betting recap: Where the Dimers model dominated and why it pays to follow

Week 4 of NFL betting is in the books, which means it's time to take a look at where the Dimers model was most dialed in this weekend.

It was another big scoring week, with a number of stars finding the end zone multiple times, led by a strong showing of our Top 5 touchdown targets for the week.

If you were leaning on our NFL predictions from the Dimers model, you'd have caught several of these outcomes coming from a mile away, all sourced from our exclusive Dimers Pro insights.

Dimers Pro remains the top betting resource in your pocket this NFL season, and when paired with the Dimers App, you'll keep finding these kinds of edges week in and week out.

Let's see where the Dimers model was most dialed in from this weekend's slate.

Dimers' spreads have best week yet at 13-3

An absolute smasher of a week by the Dimers model with its closing line spread predictions, accurately picking 13 out of 16 games on the spread.

A mix of both underdogs and favorites combine to turn in our best overall week of the season, besting our previous high of 11-5 in Week 1 and 2.

How do we determine our model's pick on the spread?

We check each NFL game prediction, and wherever our model favors a side above 50% against the spread, or finds value on a team at the closing number, that's our pick.

In games where the Dimers model predicted a 50/50 split, we check our predicted final score for the tiebreaker, as it will always land on one side of the spread.

Notable model picks that cashed this week included the Falcons, Rams and Panthers, all covering behind Dimers' numbers.

Touchdown picks go a perfect 5-0 at the top

Our second Top 5 sweep of the year, with Jahmyr Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey and Josh Allen all finding the end zone.

WEEK 4 NFL TOUCHDOWNS 🏈 One new face in our Top 5 for NFL Sunday, and he's got the shortest odds of them all. https://t.co/PkwPOY8rAo

— Dimers (@dimerscom) October 4, 2026

They had some of the shortest odds on the slate and no value, but the Dimers model correctly identified them as the five most likely players to score, and a parlay of all five would have cashed at +547 odds.

Over the first four weeks of the season, Dimers' top 5 Sunday TD scorers have a 18-2 record of finding the end zone.

Get an early look at those in Week 5 via our NFL Player Projections.

Dimers' top call-outs

It's rarely a chalk week betting on the NFL, and Week 4 was no different, with these performances backing up the numbers we had on the board and covered as favorable betting angles via our best NFL bets and best NFL player props.

TD droughts snapped by Tetairoa McMillan and Rhamondre Stevenson

We called out three players with a chance to snap their scoreless streaks to start the season, and two of them, Tetairoa McMillan and Rhamondre Stevenson, found the end zone.

McMillan turned in a career-best game behind nearly 200 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns, and if you were in the Dimers Discord, you would have seen this writer recommend a Tet McMillan receiving yards ladder, which he cashed all the way up to 175+ at +1700 odds.

Led by one of Dimers' best touchdown edges of the week, Rhamondre Stevenson snapped his streak in an excellent matchup with a Bills defense continually exposed by the running game and dualthreat backs.

Kyren Williams and Bucky Irving rack up the yards

In this article, we highlighted a pair of running backs with a chance to climb the rushing yards ladder based on their matchups and lines.

Bucky Irving didn't climb the ladder, but he did cash his 60+ yards at plus-money, backed by our projection, while Kyren Williams stayed hot with 80+ yards in his third straight game, cashing three plus-money lines at 60+, 70+ and 80.

What the Dimers model said about these standout performances

Some of the biggest player and team performances of the week - here's what our model predicted around those outcomes and where you might have found an edge in our NFL player projections:

CeeDee Lamb's 17 catches, 189 yards

Lamb has consistently ranked as a top WR this season in our projections, but he obliterated his lines in Week 4, posting a career-high 17 catches, including the game-winning TD with 40 seconds left.

We had Lamb at 79.9 receiving yards, behind two other players who racked up over 100 yards, Puka Nacua and Chris Olave.

Brian Robinson Jr.'s hat trick

If you saw a B. Robinson with three touchdowns on MNF, you probably wouldn't be that surprised, as Bijan Robinson is one of the most prolific backs in the league.

However, it wasn't him, but his backfield mate Brian Robinson Jr. who pulled off the feat with three touchdowns, a result that carried just a 0.2% probability by our model, resulting in one of the least likely results we'll see all season.

Where we missed in Week 4

Though they didn't blow the lead, the Ravens were unable to retain their three-score lead after Lamar Jackson went down, resulting in a backdoor cover with just over 1 minute left on the clock, sinking an otherwise 2-1 result for our weekly NFL Best Bets video.

We caught a bit of a bad beat on our two SGPs this week, with Pat Freiermuth coming up short on receiving yards on TNF, disappointing after getting halfway there early on, and then Jahmyr Gibbs getting shut down in the ground game hurt our SNF play, despite nailing our calls on Tet McMillan.

Not every prediction will be a winner, but if you trust the data long-term and rely on statistical decisions, you're more likely to find success over time.

Dimers' 2026-27 NFL betting resources for Week 5

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NFL Best Bets: Our top picks for every individual matchup
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win the Super Bowl?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league