NFL Week 4 Touchdown Props: 3 players who could score their first TD on Sunday

Scoring touchdowns in the NFL is one of the most fun NFL betting markets, but it's also not easy, even for some of the most talented players; stars like Saquon Barkley and George Pickens are among the players who have yet to cash a touchdown prop bet this season, and their tough matchups on Sunday might keep them out of the endzone for another week.

However, there are several players with a 0 in the TD column of their 2026 stats who find themselves in a favorable matchup this in Week 4, and those are the NFL player props we're looking at today.

Three weeks into the season, RB Rhamondre Stevenson and WRs Tetairoa McMillan and Josh Downs are still waiting on their first touchdown of 2026, with a favorable opportunity and strong Dimers backing from our NFL predictions to break the cold streak on Sunday.

Each player is drawing steady volume, faces a defense that has been giving up scores to his position, and each carries one of the highest touchdown probabilities on his team this week.

Here's how the Dimers data lines up for all three.

Josh Downs (Colts)

Dimers anytime TD probability: 35.3%

Josh Down might get his first TD of the season on foreign soil, as Colts vs. Commanders kicks off in London bright and early on Sunday.

Downs' role has grown every week. His targets have gone from 4 to 7 to 11, and he has a catch of 20+ yards in all three games. Now Keenan Allen has been ruled out with a groin injury, which should push even more of Daniel Jones' looks his way.

The matchup could not be better. Washington has allowed 11 passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL, and the Dimers model projects Downs for 77 receiving yards, the most of any wide receiver in the game.

Downs' 35.3% is the second-highest touchdown probability on the Colts behind only Jonathan Taylor, and our projected final score of 26-21 implies roughly three Indianapolis touchdowns, and the receiver with rising volume, big-play range and a depleted room around him is a natural candidate for one of them.

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Dimers anytime TD probability: 39.2%

Rhamondre Stevenson's 7 carries in Week 3 look bad on paper, but they were a clear result of game script, which ideally won't be the case in Patriots vs. Bills.

New England fell behind early in a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville and stopped running the ball. But with Drake Maye struggling through the first three weeks, the Patriots have every reason to lean on the backfield early in this game and take some pressure off their quarterback.

The way Stevenson is utilized in this offense gives him the advantage in this backfield on Sunday. He has 11 targets through three games, tied for third-most on the Patriots.

Backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson has 1 target in two games, making Stevenson the clear pass-catching back, and that matters against this Bills defense. Buffalo has allowed 2 rushing and 3 receiving touchdowns to running backs through three weeks, including a receiving score to a back in every game.

Our TD value on Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 4.

The Dimers model makes Stevenson the most likely Patriot to score at 39.2%, the highest for New England and third-highest probability of anyone in the game. It also finds an edge at his best price on Novig.

Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers)

Dimers anytime TD probability: 32.6%

Second-year wideout Tetairoa McMillan saw a season-low 5 targets in Week 3, but if you zoom out for the first three games of the season, and it looks like the outlier. He drew 18 targets across the first two weeks and is still the most targeted player on the team heading into Panthers vs. Lions.

At 6-foot-5, he gives Carolina a size mismatch against Detroit's secondary, which has been one of the easiest to throw on in the league. The Lions rank 31st against the pass and have allowed 9 passing touchdowns in three games.

The game total sits at 51.5, one of the highest on the slate and while Dimers' prediction leans to the under at 55%, our projected 27-23 final score still leaves plenty of room for touchdowns on both sides.

It's worth noting the difference in value between McMillan and his teammate, Jalen Coker.

Our model finds an edge on Jalen Coker to score, at a slightly higher probability than McMillan. On pure numbers, Coker is the better bet. But Coker already has two touchdowns this season and is nursing a quad strain heading into Sunday.

If you're looking for a first-time scorer, McMillan's opportunity is just as strong, though at shorter odds.

Bet on NFL in 2026 with Dimers Pro

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the NFL season.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single NFL game this season via Dimers' NFL predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both NFL and college football, as well as all in-season sports during that time.