Chiefs vs. Falcons prediction: Why Kansas City is favored to win in NFL Week 10 [2026]

Since our Chiefs-Falcons predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Falcons, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Chiefs a 62.1% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 10 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 25-22.

Key factors favoring the Chiefs:

• Chiefs offense
• Chiefs team rating
• Falcons QB situation

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Chiefs and Falcons each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 47.5-point over/under has a 51.4% chance of going over.

Key factors making the over more likely are::

• Playing conditions
• Chiefs recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 10 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (+117) / Falcons +3.5 (-117)
• Moneyline: Chiefs -163, Falcons +160
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (+102/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Chiefs -3.5 @ 46¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Chiefs @ 62¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 47.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Chiefs -3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Chiefs vs. Falcons TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chiefs vs. Falcons?

According to our model, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Chiefs vs. Falcons.

Our projections give Robinson a 60.1% chance of scoring a TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the running back is a 16.7% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

• Emmett Johnson (RB): 54.9% probability
• Rashee Rice (WR): 34.3%
• Travis Kelce (TE): 29.4%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 20.9%
• Josh Downs (WR): 18.3%

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 60.1% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 29.8%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 29.5%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 18.3%
• Khalil Herbert (RB): 14.0%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

• Emmett Johnson (RB): 14.3% prob.
• Rashee Rice (WR): 7.5%
• Travis Kelce (TE): 6.2%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 4.2%
• Josh Downs (WR): 3.6%

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 16.7% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 6.4%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 6.3%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 3.7%
• Khalil Herbert (RB): 2.7%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chiefs and Falcons. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 10 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected for 242 passing yards. The Falcons' Michael Penix is expected to throw for 219 yards.

Chiefs rushing

• Emmett Johnson: 72 yds
• Nate Carter: 20 yds
• Jaydn Ott: 15 yds

Falcons rushing

• Bijan Robinson: 89 yds
• Khalil Herbert: 15 yds
• Michael Penix: 10 yds

Chiefs receiving

• Rashee Rice: 61 yds
• Travis Kelce: 48 yds
• Xavier Worthy: 33 yds
• Josh Downs: 29 yds
• Emmett Johnson: 28 yds

Falcons receiving

• Drake London: 76 yds
• Kyle Pitts: 41 yds
• Jahan Dotson: 34 yds
• Bijan Robinson: 31 yds
• Olamide Zaccheaus: 16 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 10 game between the Falcons and Chiefs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
• Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 62.1% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 10 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.