Kenneth Walker’s touchdown trend lines up well against Falcons

Kenneth Walker III scored three touchdowns last Sunday against the Jets, and that outburst fits a pattern that has held all season. The Chiefs running back has never found the end zone exactly once in a game in 2026. He’s either been shut out or scored at least twice in every outing, and Week 10's Chiefs vs. Falcons brings a matchup built for the same result.

Walker and the Chiefs travel to Atlanta on Sunday to face a Falcons defense that ranks 23rd in rushing yards allowed and has given up 10 rushing touchdowns, the same mark as three teams Walker has already produced multi-touchdown games against. Dimers' NFL player projections have him down for 91 rushing yards and gives him a 63.5% chance to score anytime.

Kenneth Walker's season of zeros and multiples

Walker arrived in Kansas City this offseason on a three-year deal worth up to $45 million after winning Super Bowl MVP with Seattle, and the move has paid off early. He opened with two touchdowns against Denver in Week 1, was held scoreless in a Week 2 win over Indianapolis despite 117 rushing yards, then scored twice against Miami in Week 3 and twice again on 177 yards against Las Vegas in Week 4. He added two more against the Chargers in Week 6 before back-to-back shutouts, including a Week 7 trip to Seattle, his former team, in a 20-3 loss.

Last week against the Jets, he broke through for three scores on 102 yards. Through eight games, Walker has 11 of the Chiefs’ 25 offensive touchdowns: three shutouts, four two-touchdown games and last week’s three-touchdown outing, with not one game of exactly one score.

Kansas City is favored in Dimers' NFL predictions this week, and Walker’s workload is a big reason why.

Atlanta fits the profile

The three multi-touchdown games against Las Vegas, the Chargers and the Jets share something beyond the box score. All three defenses have allowed at least 10 rushing touchdowns this season, with the Raiders the league’s most generous at 12 and 32nd in rushing yards allowed.

Atlanta sits in that same range, tied with the Jets at 10 rushing touchdowns allowed, the defense Walker just took apart for three scores. That’s the number that matters here, not yardage: Denver ranks worse than Atlanta in rushing yards allowed but has given up only six rushing touchdowns, the stingiest mark of any defense Walker has faced, and it’s one of three teams that held him scoreless this season. Dimers’ Week 10  player projections have Walker lined up for his kind of week against Atlanta.

Walker projections vs. Falcons in Week 10

Kansas City is favored by 3.5 points on the road, with Dimers’ model giving the Chiefs roughly a 64% win probability and projecting a 26-22 final.

For Walker specifically, Dimers has him at 91 rushing yards, a 63.7% chance to score at least one touchdown, a 26.7% chance at two or more and an 8.2% chance at three or more. He’s also scored the game’s first touchdown three times this season, and Dimers gives him an 18.1% chance to open the scoring again Sunday.

Dimers Pro unlocks the full set of player projections behind these numbers, including Walker’s complete scoring range and the same breakdown for every other skill player on the Week 10 slate. It comes with unlimited best bets and props too, and you can cancel or pause anytime.

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