Updated NFL Playoff predictions: The 5 teams on the make/miss postseason bubble

Most of the NFL playoff picture is settling. Out of 32 teams, 19 are either above 90% or below 10% in Dimers' latest make/miss playoff outlooks from our NFL predictions model.

That means there are 13 teams whose fates are less certain, and with half of the season yet to play, the middle of the board is where the rest of the playoff picture gets decided and opens up NFL betting opportunities on underdogs.

From those 13 teams, we're looking at the five whose make-and-miss probabilities are closest together, sitting on the "playoff bubble" heading into Week 10.

Each could go either way over the final nine weeks of the season, with some fighting for a division spot and others who would be lucky to secure a wild card spot.

You'll notice that four of the five teams are in the NFC. With four guaranteed division winners getting in, that leaves the three wild card spots up for grabs. Currently, the entire NFC North is 6-3 or better, meaning if the season ended today, the entire division would get in.

Green Bay Packers

Make playoffs: 61.7% | Miss playoffs: 38.3%

The Packers have one of the more unusual profiles in the league. They’re 6-3, have won five of six, and Jordan Love leads the NFL with 2,618 passing yards. They’re also last in the NFC North entering Week 10, due largely to a pair of divisional losses.

All four NFC North teams are at 61.7% or better to make the playoffs. Their combined odds add up to almost 300%, so the model expects multiple teams from the division to get in, and currently, Green Bay is the one most at risk.

The Packers’ division odds are just 12.9%, but at 61.7% to make the playoffs, they’re still more likely to get in than not thanks to the three wild card spots. They badly need a win within the division, and will sim to do so vs. the Vikings this week

Week 10 brings Minnesota to Lambeau Field. The Vikings are 72.8% to make the playoffs, so this is a direct shot at the team just ahead of them in the wild-card race, and if the Vikings lose, things suddenly get interesting for the once 6-0 team.

Los Angeles Rams

Make playoffs: 59.0% | Miss playoffs: 41.0%

The Rams are the only team in this group on the right side of 50%, but it sure doesn't feel that way given the ups and downs they've faced early on, between injuries and poor play.

But a 20-13 win over Washington was their third straight and moved them above .500 (5-4) for the first time this season, even though it came with the expected loss of WR Puka Nacua for several weeks.

Unless the 49ers completely fall apart, their path runs through the wild card, not the NFC West. San Francisco is 82.6% to win the division, and the Rams’ division odds have stayed below 23% all season, though that hasn't kept this roster from projecting as a top Super Bowl LXI contender.

If the season ended today, the Rams would miss the playoffs thanks to the stacked NFC North. But next up is a trip to Arizona, who will be starting rookie QB Carson Beck in his first start before the Rams' bye, then a Thanksgiving Eve game against Green Bay, a game that will likely have massive Wild Card implications.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Make playoffs: 45.0% | Miss playoffs: 55.0%

No team is closer to a true coin flip. Tampa Bay is 3-6 overall but 2-0 in the NFC South, in a division where nobody has a winning record. They've already beaten both of the teams "above" them at 3-5, and our model currently makes them the favorite to win the division.

That’s why the Buccaneers’ playoff odds and division odds are almost identical: 45.0% to make the playoffs, 44.8% to win the division. They are highly unlikely to win a wild card spot, sitting 3 games back of the 7-seed as it is, meaning the division is their only realistic way in.

Tampa Bay has also seen the biggest climb on our futures board.

The Bucs were at 11.2% to win the NFC South when sitting winless after Week 4 and have quadrupled that since.

They erased an 11-point deficit at Chicago on Sunday night, a far superior offensive roster, and tied the game. Mayfield, now three games back from a dislocated thumb, threw for a season-high 243 yards, and the Bucs boast one of the most elite defensive units in the league under Todd Bowles.

Seattle Seahawks

Make playoffs: 39.9% | Miss playoffs: 60.1%

Seattle started the season as the NFC West and Super Bowl favorite.

After Week 2, they dropped to 40.7% to win the division, ahead of San Francisco. That number is now down to 8.6%, after going 3-4 since starting 2-0, and the Seahawks are now fighting for a wild card at 5-4.

Despite having the reigning OPOY in Jaxon Smith-Njigba making another case to go back-to-back, QB Sam Darnold is out with a quad injury, and Drew Lock has stepped in: 597 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions in three appearances, including Sunday’s 17-3 win over Arizona, and the team hasn't lost when Lock has played.

But Lock suffered an oblique injury in that game, and Seattle could start third-stringer Jalen Milroe against the Raiders in Week 10, opposite first overall pick Fernando Mendoza making his first start.

They're currently the 8th seed, and a loss would drop them to .500 and likely a game behind the Rams.

Few teams’ playoff odds depend more on this week's injury report.

Houston Texans

Make playoffs: 39.6% | Miss playoffs: 60.4%

Houston is 3-5 and essentially out of the AFC South race.

Jacksonville is 6-2, 87.7% to win the division, and the Texans have been below 24% since Week 2.

They're hanging on and trending slightly up, having won 3 of their last 4 after an 0-4 start, and C.J. Stroud threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns in a 44-22 rout of the Chargers and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. Houston scored 28 straight points after trailing 10-9.

There’s a precedent for a run: last season the Texans started 3-5 and then won nine straight. Their remaining schedule is rated among the league’s easiest.

They'll have to do so via the Wild Card, where they currently sit four spots back, but they go head-to-head with the 8th-seed Browns and a 66.5% win probability from our model in Week 10, and we predict the 7th-seed Patriots and 9th-seed Raiders to lose, helping Houston close the gap.

Which teams saw the biggest rise and fall since Week 1?

We’ve tracked every team’s odds to win its division since before the season.

Comparing that history with the current playoff odds shows which teams have changed direction the most.

Division favorites to out of the playoffs

Philadelphia Eagles: Peaked at 62.1% to win the division (Week 2). Now 0.6% to win the division, 99.4% to miss the playoffs. The Eagles led the NFC East through Week 5 before Jalen Hurts was ruled out for the season with blood clots in his lungs. It’s the biggest collapse on our board.

Baltimore Ravens: Peaked at 55.1% to win the division (Week 5). Now 1.3% to win the division, 87.5% to miss the playoffs. Lamar Jackson’s thumb surgery sent Baltimore into a four-game losing streak, with three of those losses by 22 points or more. The Ravens have been held under 14 points in four straight games for the first time in franchise history.

Carolina Panthers: Peaked at 52.5% to win the division (Week 6). Now 23.1% to win the division, 76.5% to miss the playoffs. Carolina led the NFC South for four straight weeks but has now lost three in a row. Sunday at New Orleans is close to a must-win.

Projected Wild Cards now fighting for the division

New York Giants: Low of 12.8% to win the division (Week 2). Now 64.9% to win the division, 67.1% to make the playoffs. The Giants’ division odds rose after every week we tracked. Since trading for J.J. McCarthy, they’ve climbed to 5-2-1 and the top of the NFC East, and we called them out as a +380 division winner after Week 5.

Chicago Bears: Low of 11.4% to win the division (Week 5). Now 33.7% to win the division, 86.8% to make the playoffs. Chicago has won four straight since Caleb Williams returned from his hamstring injury. Our preseason value bet to win the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Low of 8.3% to win the division (Week 2). Now 25.1% to win the division, 73.5% to make the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers and a top-four scoring defense have the Steelers tied with Cincinnati at 6-2. Sunday night’s game in Cincinnati will decide first place.

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