Nov 12, 2026
Commanders vs. Giants prediction favors Giants to win TNF Week 10 [2026]
Read Article Commanders vs. Giants parlay picks: Combine these Thursday Night Football prop bets at +500 odds
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The Giants and Commanders kick off Week 10 on Thursday Night Football. See how we've used the Dimers data to build a +500 same game parlay.
The Week 10 NFL betting action kicks off with Commanders vs. Giants on Thursday Night Football at MetLife Stadium on November 12, 2026.
As we nearly always do for the primetime slate, we’ve built a three-leg same game NFL parlay at +500 odds, using the data from our elite Dimers Pro NFL predictions, best bets and player props.
Commanders vs. Giants Thursday Night Football preview
This is the second meeting between these NFC East rivals this season. The first one was a showcase for all three players in this parlay: Jayden Daniels ran for more than 100 yards, while Malik Nabers (11 catches, 121 yards, one touchdown) and Isaiah Likely (11 catches, 94 yards, two touchdowns) both had big days for New York.
What will be different this time, pending a status update, is the QB for New York.
Jameis Winston started the first meeting, but J.J. McCarthy is expected to start Thursday. McCarthy hurt his hip and briefly left Sunday’s game, but he was a full practice participant on Tuesday, pointing to him back under center on Thursday night.
The Giants are 2.5-point favorites with the total is set at 41.5.
Our model gives the Giants a 58.6% win probability and projects a 22-19 New York win. That’s a 41-point total, right at the market number, in a game we expect to stay within a field goal.
Our Commanders vs. Giants same game parlay picks
This three-leg NFL parlay is backed by Dimers data and expert analysis, drawing on our NFL Projections Hub, which provides detailed player-level insights for every game.
Leg 1: Isaiah Likely 40+ receiving yards
The data case: Washington has struggled to cover tight ends all season. The Commanders allow 68.4 receiving yards per game to the position, fifth-most in the NFL.
Likely already took advantage of that once. He caught 11 passes for 94 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting with Winston at quarterback. He hasn't had the same connection in his limited time with McCarthy as he displayed with Winston and Jaxson Dart, but the matchup should see him with the most looks sent his way since McCarthy took over at QB.
The Dimers model projects Likely for 4.2 catches and 49.4 receiving yards, second on the Giants behind Nabers, and comfortably clear of this 40-yard line. We also him a 34.1% chance to score.
Leg 2: Jayden Daniels 30+ rushing yards
The data case: No defense in the NFL has been easier for quarterbacks to run against than New York’s. The Giants allow 33.6 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, the most in the league.
Daniels showed how much damage he can do against this defense in the first meeting, when he ran for more than 100 yards. His legs are a big part of Washington’s offense, especially in a close game where scrambles and designed runs can keep drives going, and with a banged-up backfield for Washington.
The Dimers model projects Daniels for 38.2 rushing yards, second on the team behind Rachaad White (43.3), but well clear of this 30-yard line.
Leg 3: Malik Nabers anytime TD scorer
The data case: Nabers is the focal point of the Giants’ passing game and the Dimers model projects him for 5.2 catches and 71.7 receiving yards, the most of any player in this game.
This matchup sets up well for him to score. Washington has allowed 16 passing touchdowns this season, tied for fourth-most in the NFL, and Nabers caught one of them in the first meeting during his 11-catch, 121-yard performance. This past Sunday, Washington allowed WR Puka Nacua to record 14 catches, 150 yards and a touchdown on 19 targets.
The Dimers model gives Nabers a 35.4% chance to score, the highest of any receiver in the game and a narrow second on the Giants, only to Cam Skattebo (37.4%).
Bet this Commanders vs. Giants same game parlay at +500 odds on DraftKings
To recap this parlay, we’re looking at these three legs:
- Isaiah Likely 40+ receiving yards
- Malik Nabers anytime TD scorer
- Jayden Daniels 30+ rushing yards
You can bet it at the best available odds on DraftKings Sportsbook - remember to please gamble responsibly.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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