Bills vs. Jets prediction favors Buffalo to win in NFL Week 10 [2026]

Since our Bills-Jets predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Bills and Jets, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Bills a 74.6% chance of beating the Jets in Week 10 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 29-21.

Key factors favoring the Bills:

• Bills team rating
• Bills offense
• Jets offense

According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Bills and Jets each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 50.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 10 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Bills -7.5 (-104) / Jets +7.5 (+102)
• Moneyline: Bills -376, Jets +376
• Total: Over/Under 50.5 (-106/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Jets +7.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Jets @ 21¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 50.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Jets to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Bills vs. Jets TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Jets?

According to our model, Josh Allen is most likely to score an anytime TD in Bills vs. Jets.

Our projections give Allen a 55.2% chance of getting in for six at MetLife Stadium, while the quarterback is a 12.5% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (QB): 55.2% probability
• James Cook (RB): 54.3%
• DJ Moore (WR): 32.5%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 27.3%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 26.8%

New York Jets

• Breece Hall (RB): 39.4% prob.
• Garrett Wilson (WR): 32.7%
• Braelon Allen (RB): 30.2%
• Omar Cooper (WR): 21.7%
• Adonai Mitchell (WR): 18.9%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen (QB): 12.5% prob.
• James Cook (RB): 12.2%
• DJ Moore (WR): 6.1%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 5.0%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 4.8%

New York Jets

• Breece Hall (RB): 8.7% prob.
• Garrett Wilson (WR): 6.9%
• Braelon Allen (RB): 6.2%
• Omar Cooper (WR): 4.2%
• Adonai Mitchell (WR): 3.6%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Jets. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 10 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 238 passing yards. The Jets' Geno Smith is expected to throw for 224 yards.

Bills rushing

• James Cook: 98 yds
• Josh Allen: 31 yds
• Ray Davis: 9 yds

Jets rushing

• Breece Hall: 55 yds
• Braelon Allen: 37 yds
• Geno Smith: 9 yds

Bills receiving

• DJ Moore: 51 yds
• Khalil Shakir: 48 yds
• Dalton Kincaid: 44 yds
• Keon Coleman: 34 yds
• Ty Johnson: 18 yds

Jets receiving

• Garrett Wilson: 65 yds
• Omar Cooper: 42 yds
• Adonai Mitchell: 41 yds
• Kenyon Sadiq: 26 yds
• Mason Taylor: 22 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 10 action between the Jets and Bills at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
• Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
• Venue: MetLife Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 74.6% win probability, will likely beat the Jets in Week 10 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.