Patriots vs. Lions prediction favors Detroit to win in NFL Week 10 [2026]

Since our Patriots-Lions predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Lions, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Lions a 59.5% chance of beating the Patriots in Week 10 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Lions winning 25-23.

Key factors favoring the Lions:

• Lions offense
• Lions team rating
• Patriots QB situation

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Patriots and Lions each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 49.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 10 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Patriots +2.5 (+108) / Lions -2.5 (-111)
• Moneyline: Patriots +135, Lions -138
• Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-106/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Patriots +2.5 @ 48¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Lions @ 58¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 49.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Patriots +2.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Patriots vs. Lions TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Lions?

According to our model, Jahmyr Gibbs is most likely to score an anytime TD in Patriots vs. Lions.

Our projections give Gibbs a 65.9% chance of scoring a TD at Allianz Arena, while the running back is an 18.6% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• Corey Kiner (RB): 31.6% probability
• A.J. Brown (WR): 30.5%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 25.0%
• Lan Larison (RB): 24.1%
• DeMario Douglas (WR): 23.1%

Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 65.9% prob.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 48.6%
• Jameson Williams (WR): 29.1%
• Sam LaPorta (TE): 28.2%
• Sione Vaki (RB): 13.7%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New England Patriots

• Corey Kiner (RB): 6.4% prob.
• A.J. Brown (WR): 6.1%
• Hunter Henry (TE): 4.8%
• Lan Larison (RB): 4.6%
• DeMario Douglas (WR): 4.4%

Detroit Lions

• Jahmyr Gibbs (RB): 18.6% prob.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR): 11.5%
• Jameson Williams (WR): 6.0%
• Sam LaPorta (TE): 5.7%
• Sione Vaki (RB): 2.6%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Lions. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 10 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected to have a big game with 264 passing yards. The Lions' Jared Goff is expected to throw for a whopping 266 yards.

Patriots rushing

• Corey Kiner: 61 yds
• Drake Maye: 28 yds
• Lan Larison: 22 yds

Lions rushing

• Jahmyr Gibbs: 93 yds
• Sione Vaki: 16 yds
• Jared Goff: 4 yds

Patriots receiving

• A.J. Brown: 57 yds
• DeMario Douglas: 45 yds
• Mack Hollins: 40 yds
• Hunter Henry: 40 yds
• Eli Raridon: 28 yds

Lions receiving

• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 87 yds
• Jameson Williams: 60 yds
• Sam LaPorta: 46 yds
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 35 yds
• Isaac TeSlaa: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 10 game between the Lions and Patriots at Allianz Arena is scheduled to start at 9:30 AM ET.

• Who: New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions
• Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
• Time: 9:30 AM ET/6:30 AM PT
• Venue: Allianz Arena

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Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 59.5% win probability, will likely beat the Patriots in Week 10 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.