Texans vs. Browns prediction: Why Houston is favored to win in NFL Week 10 [2026]

Since our Texans-Browns predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Texans and Browns, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Texans a 65.9% chance of beating the Browns in Week 10 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 22-18.

Key factors favoring the Texans:

• Browns offense
• Texans team rating
• Texans QB situation

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Texans and Browns each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 40.5 points has a 51.8% chance of going over.

What's tipping the scales toward the over?:

• Texans recent performance
• QB ratings

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 10 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Texans -4.5 (+102) / Browns +4.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Texans -208, Browns +203
• Total: Over/Under 40.5 (-104/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Texans -4.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Browns @ 33¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 40.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Browns to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Texans vs. Browns TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Texans vs. Browns?

According to our model, Woody Marks is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Texans vs. Browns.

Our projections give Marks a 39.9% chance of scoring a TD at Huntington Bank Field, while the running back is a 10.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

• Woody Marks (RB): 39.9% probability
• Nico Collins (WR): 38.8%
• Emari Demercado (RB): 24.5%
• Tank Dell (WR): 21.4%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 19.3%

Cleveland Browns

• Quinshon Judkins (RB): 34.6% prob.
• Denzel Boston (WR): 26.8%
• Harold Fannin (TE): 26.7%
• KC Concepcion (WR): 20.7%
• Dylan Sampson (RB): 18.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Houston Texans

• Woody Marks (RB): 10.3% prob.
• Nico Collins (WR): 10.0%
• Emari Demercado (RB): 5.7%
• Tank Dell (WR): 4.9%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 4.3%

Cleveland Browns

• Quinshon Judkins (RB): 8.7% prob.
• Denzel Boston (WR): 6.4%
• Harold Fannin (TE): 6.4%
• KC Concepcion (WR): 4.7%
• Dylan Sampson (RB): 4.1%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Texans and Browns. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 10 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Texans' C.J. Stroud is projected for 248 passing yards. The Browns' Deshaun Watson is expected to throw for 212 yards.

Texans rushing

• Woody Marks: 65 yds
• Emari Demercado: 29 yds
• C.J. Stroud: 13 yds

Browns rushing

• Quinshon Judkins: 45 yds
• Deshaun Watson: 28 yds
• Dylan Sampson: 20 yds

Texans receiving

• Nico Collins: 64 yds
• Tank Dell: 45 yds
• Xavier Hutchinson: 39 yds
• Dalton Schultz: 34 yds
• Kayshon Boutte: 29 yds

Browns receiving

• KC Concepcion: 52 yds
• Denzel Boston: 49 yds
• Harold Fannin: 42 yds
• Dylan Sampson: 24 yds
• Jerry Jeudy: 23 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 10 action between the Browns and Texans at Huntington Bank Field is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
• Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
• Venue: Huntington Bank Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Texans, with a 65.9% win probability, will likely beat the Browns in Week 10 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.