Dolphins vs. Colts prediction: Why Indianapolis is favored to win in NFL Week 10 [2026]

Since our Dolphins-Colts predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Dolphins and Colts, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Colts a 63.5% chance of beating the Dolphins in Week 10 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Colts winning 21-17.

Key factors favoring the Colts:

• Dolphins offense
• Dolphins defense
• Colts home-field advantage

According to our model, the Dolphins (+4.5) have a 51.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 37.5-point over/under has a 52.2% chance of going over.

The key factors that make the over more likely are:

• Playing conditions
• Dolphins defense

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 10 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Dolphins +4.5 (-102) / Colts -4.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Dolphins +194, Colts -199
• Total: Over/Under 37.5 (+104/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dolphins +4.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Dolphins @ 34¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 37.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 37.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Dolphins vs. Colts TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Dolphins vs. Colts?

According to our model, Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Dolphins vs. Colts.

Our projections give Taylor a 52.0% chance of getting in for six at Lucas Oil Stadium, while the running back is a 16.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

• Ollie Gordon (RB): 44.9% probability
• Caleb Douglas (WR): 17.9%
• Malik Washington (WR): 17.8%
• Greg Dulcich (TE): 13.1%
• Kevin Coleman (WR): 12.8%

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 52.0% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 30.8%
• Seth McGowan (RB): 22.0%
• Laquon Treadwell (WR): 18.3%
• Deion Burks (WR): 14.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

• Ollie Gordon (RB): 15.6% prob.
• Caleb Douglas (WR): 5.2%
• Malik Washington (WR): 5.1%
• Greg Dulcich (TE): 3.7%
• Kevin Coleman (WR): 3.6%

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 16.3% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 8.2%
• Seth McGowan (RB): 5.5%
• Laquon Treadwell (WR): 4.5%
• Deion Burks (WR): 3.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Dolphins and Colts. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 10 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Dolphins' Kyle McCord is projected to have a quiet game with 185 passing yards, while the Colts' Daniel Jones is expected to throw for 195 yards.

Dolphins rushing

• Ollie Gordon: 70 yds
• Jaylen Wright: 14 yds
• Kaytron Allen: 14 yds

Colts rushing

• Jonathan Taylor: 71 yds
• Seth McGowan: 30 yds
• Daniel Jones: 12 yds

Dolphins receiving

• Caleb Douglas: 47 yds
• Malik Washington: 40 yds
• Greg Dulcich: 35 yds
• Kevin Coleman: 24 yds
• Ollie Gordon: 10 yds

Colts receiving

• Tyler Warren: 51 yds
• Laquon Treadwell: 34 yds
• Deion Burks: 25 yds
• Jonathan Taylor: 24 yds
• Anthony Gould: 23 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 10 action between the Colts and Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts
• Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium

NFL Week 10 promo

Make the most of Dimers' Dolphins vs. Colts predictions by exploring the code "DIMERS" with Polymarket:

Conclusion

We predict the Colts, with a 63.5% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 10 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.