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Golden Knights vs. Stars prediction: Dallas favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [3/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights will meet in the NHL at American Airlines Center on Sunday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Stars as the most likely winner of the Golden Knights vs. Stars game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Golden Knights vs. Stars prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Golden Knights and Stars 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Stars a 58% chance of defeating the Golden Knights.
According to our model, the Golden Knights (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Golden Knights vs. Stars odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Golden Knights | Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-200) | -1.5 (+184) |
| Moneyline | +122 | -142 |
| Total | o6 (-110) | u6 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Golden Knights vs. Stars picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Stars -1.5 | +184 |
| Moneyline | Stars | -142 |
| Total | Over 6 | -110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Stars -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Golden Knights vs. Stars player props
Who will score a goal in Golden Knights vs. Stars?
According to our model, Wyatt Johnston is most likely to score an anytime goal in Golden Knights vs. Stars.
Our projections give Johnston a 38.9% chance of scoring a goal at American Airlines Center, while the star is an 8.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 35.2% |
| Jack Eichel | 32.7% |
| Tomas Hertl | 26.0% |
| Mitch Marner | 25.2% |
| Ivan Barbashev | 22.9% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 38.9% |
| Jason Robertson | 38.1% |
| Matt Duchene | 30.2% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 23.6% |
| Jamie Benn | 22.5% |
First goal scorer predictions
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev | 7.2% |
| Jack Eichel | 6.5% |
| Tomas Hertl | 4.9% |
| Mitch Marner | 4.4% |
| Ivan Barbashev | 4.1% |
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 8.2% |
| Jason Robertson | 7.8% |
| Matt Duchene | 5.6% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 4.5% |
| Jamie Benn | 3.9% |
Golden Knights vs. Stars game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's matchup between the Stars and Golden Knights at American Airlines Center is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars
- Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Stars, with a 58% win probability, will likely beat the Golden Knights on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Golden Knights vs. Stars insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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