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Maple Leafs vs. Sharks prediction: Close contest projected after new data released for Thursday's NHL matchup [4/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Toronto Maple Leafs vs San Jose Sharks predictions for NHL Thursday.
The San Jose Sharks will square off with the Toronto Maple Leafs, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at SAP Center at San Jose on Thursday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives an equal chance for both both teams to win the Maple Leafs-Sharks matchup.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Maple Leafs vs. Sharks matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Sharks, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model can't split the two teams, giving both the Maple Leafs and Sharks a 50% chance of winning the game.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 52% chance of staying under.
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-235) | -1.5 (+195) |
| Moneyline | +100 | -120 |
| Total | o6.5 (-110) | u6.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -235 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +100 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -108 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks player props
Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Sharks?
According to our model, William Nylander is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Sharks.
Our projections give Nylander a 46.4% chance of scoring a goal at SAP Center at San Jose, while the star is a 10.2% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 46.4% |
| John Tavares | 41.0% |
| Matthew Knies | 36.4% |
| Matias Maccelli | 24.1% |
| Benoit-Olivier Groulx | 22.0% |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 45.7% |
| Will Smith | 33.1% |
| Kiefer Sherwood | 26.5% |
| Tyler Toffoli | 23.0% |
| Michael Misa | 22.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 10.2% |
| John Tavares | 8.5% |
| Matthew Knies | 7.4% |
| Matias Maccelli | 4.1% |
| Benoit-Olivier Groulx | 3.7% |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 9.9% |
| Will Smith | 5.7% |
| William Eklund | 4.5% |
| Kiefer Sherwood | 4.4% |
| Tyler Toffoli | 4.1% |
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Sharks and Maple Leafs at SAP Center at San Jose is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. San Jose Sharks
- Date: Thursday, April 2, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: SAP Center at San Jose
Conclusion
We predict a close game between the Maple Leafs and Sharks on Thursday, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Sharks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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