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Maple Leafs vs. Wild prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [3/15/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Toronto Maple Leafs vs Minnesota Wild predictions for NHL Sunday.
The Minnesota Wild will face the Toronto Maple Leafs in NHL action at Grand Casino Arena on Sunday, beginning at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Wild as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Wild game.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Wild prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Maple Leafs and Wild 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Wild a 65% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 56% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Maple Leafs vs. Wild odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Wild |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (+102) |
| Moneyline | +215 | -250 |
| Total | o6.5 (+100) | u6.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Wild picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +215 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -118 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Maple Leafs vs. Wild player props
Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Wild?
According to our model, Kirill Kaprizov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Wild.
Our projections give Kaprizov a 47.7% chance of scoring a goal at Grand Casino Arena, while the star is a 10.1% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 41.7% |
| John Tavares | 35.9% |
| Matthew Knies | 30.6% |
| Matias Maccelli | 21.1% |
| Nicholas Robertson | 17.9% |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | 47.7% |
| Matt Boldy | 35.7% |
| Joel Ek | 27.4% |
| Mats Zuccarello | 24.7% |
| Danila Yurov | 22.7% |
First goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 8.7% |
| John Tavares | 7.0% |
| Matthew Knies | 5.8% |
| Matias Maccelli | 3.6% |
| Nicholas Robertson | 3.0% |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov | 10.1% |
| Matt Boldy | 7.1% |
| Joel Ek | 5.4% |
| Mats Zuccarello | 4.4% |
| Danila Yurov | 4.1% |
Maple Leafs vs. Wild game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Wild and Maple Leafs at Grand Casino Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Minnesota Wild
- Date: Sunday, March 15, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Grand Casino Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Wild, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Wild insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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