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Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Daniil Medvedev prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Tirante vs Medvedev predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Thiago Agustin Tirante will face Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16 at the ATP Rome event on Tuesday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model predicts Daniil Medvedev as the most likely winner of the Tirante vs. Medvedev match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's match, including best bets and picks.
Tirante vs. Medvedev prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Tirante-Medvedev men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Medvedev a 56% chance of winning against Tirante at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Medvedev has a 54% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Tirante (+2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the over 22.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Daniil Medvedev odds
We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Tirante | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +130 | -154 |
| First Set | +120 | -152 |
| Game Spread | +2.5 (-145) | -2.5 (-110) |
| Total Games | o22.5 (-115) | u22.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Tirante vs. Medvedev picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tirante | +130 |
| First Set | Medvedev | -115 |
According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 22.5 total games.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tirante vs. Medvedev updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Daniil Medvedev is scheduled to begin on Tuesday at 3:20 PM ET.
- Who: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Daniil Medvedev
- Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026
- Approx. Time: 3:20 PM ET/12:20PM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 16
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat Thiago Tirante at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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