Tennis picks today: Miami Open ATP best bets for Friday, March 27

Today's tennis picks from the Miami Open men's semifinal match between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev have been identified using Dimers' elite in-house sports betting predictions that uncover mis-priced sportsbook odds, resulting in our profitable best tennis bets.

Once again, we have an exciting slate of tennis predictions scheduled for Friday, March 27, 2026, where we've identified two tennis picks from today's ATP Tour event, the Miami Open, in Florida.

While the public sometimes struggles to find an edge with tennis picks, the Dimers models have identified two tennis bets with significant value on today.

RELATED: How we beat the odds using tennis data

Tennis picks today - Miami Open [03/27/2026]

Men's singles semifinal: Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner

When: Tonight, 7:00pm (EST)

The Miami Open men's semifinals are here, and we are treated to a heavyweight clash between the two most in-form players on hard courts. Jannik Sinner is chasing the elusive Sunshine Double and comes into this match having won an absurd 30 consecutive sets at the Masters 1000 level. Meanwhile, Alexander Zverev has been practically untouchable on his own serve in South Florida.

Despite Zverev's stellar serving stats this week, our data model strongly indicates that Sinner's current level is simply too overwhelming.

Here are the two smartest ways to attack this matchup as straight bets.

Pick: Jannik Sinner -4.5 Games (+110)

Sinner is not just beating his opponents right now; he is dismantling them. He comes into this semifinal after routine, lopsided wins, and he absolutely owns the recent head-to-head against the German, having won their last six meetings.

Our model projects Sinner covering this 4.5-game spread 54.0% of the time, creating a highly valuable 6.4% edge at plus-money (+110).

Why Sinner -4.5 games is the pick: While Zverev's serve has been practically unbreakable against the rest of the tour, Sinner's return game is the ultimate neutralizer. Just two weeks ago at Indian Wells, Sinner routinely beat Zverev 6-2, 6-4 (a 6-game margin). At plus-money, we are betting that Sinner will continue his ruthless baseline aggression, secure the necessary breaks of serve, and clear the 4.5-game hurdle (e.g., 6-4, 6-3) to cash this ticket.

Pick: Under 21.5 Games (-108)

If you agree with the game script that Sinner will dictate the baseline rallies and handle Zverev in straight sets, the Under 21.5 is the perfect complimentary play.

We assign a 58.7% probability to this match staying under the 21.5 total, offering a strong 6.8% edge.

Why Under 21.5 games is the pick: For this match to go Over 21.5 games, Zverev essentially needs to force a tiebreak (7-6) or push the match to a decisive third set. Given Sinner's current form—and the fact that he hasn't dropped a set at a Masters 1000 event in over a month—a drawn-out battle is highly unlikely. A standard, efficient victory for the Italian (such as 6-4, 6-4) lands exactly at 20 games, cashing the Under comfortably without requiring a complete blowout.