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Read Article Roman Andres Burruchaga vs. Mattia Bellucci prediction, odds, picks for ATP Italian Open 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Burruchaga vs Bellucci predictions for ATP Italian Open.
Roman Andres Burruchaga and Mattia Bellucci will meet in the round of 128 of the ATP Italian Open event on Thursday.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven tennis model predicts Roman Burruchaga as the most likely winner of the Burruchaga vs. Bellucci match.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's match, including best bets and picks.
Burruchaga vs. Bellucci prediction: Who will win and advance to the second round?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's Burruchaga-Bellucci men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives Burruchaga a 70% chance of beating Bellucci at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additionally, Burruchaga has a 67% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Burruchaga (-3.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the **over/under of 21.5 games has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting, according to our model.
Roman Andres Burruchaga vs. Mattia Bellucci odds
We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Burruchaga | Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -250 | +220 |
| First Set | -227 | +175 |
| Game Spread | -3.5 (-126) | +3.5 (-108) |
| Total Games | o21.5 (-125) | u21.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Burruchaga vs. Bellucci picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Burruchaga | -250 |
| First Set | Bellucci | -104 |
According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Roman Burruchaga to win the first set.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Burruchaga vs. Bellucci updates and essential details
The ATP Italian Open match between Roman Andres Burruchaga and Mattia Bellucci is scheduled to begin on Thursday at 7:15 AM ET.
- Who: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs. Mattia Bellucci
- Date: Thursday, May 7, 2026
- Approx. Time: 7:15 AM ET/4:15AM PT
- Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2026
- Round: Round of 128
All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.
Conclusion
We predict Roman Burruchaga, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat Mattia Bellucci at the ATP Italian Open tournament.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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